Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Lille win with a probability of 60.92%. A draw had a probability of 21.2% and a win for Metz had a probability of 17.92%.
The most likely scoreline for a Lille win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.16%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (10.14%) and 2-1 (9.96%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (9.98%), while for a Metz win it was 0-1 (5%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with a 10.1% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Lille would win this match.
Result | ||
Lille | Draw | Metz |
60.92% ( -0.66) | 21.16% ( 0.07) | 17.92% ( 0.58) |
Both teams to score 54.04% ( 0.91) |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
57.18% ( 0.64) | 42.82% ( -0.64) |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
34.78% ( 0.63) | 65.22% ( -0.63) |
Lille Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
86.41% ( 0.01) | 13.59% ( -0.01) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
59.29% ( 0.01) | 40.7% ( -0.02) |
Metz Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
62.53% ( 1.05) | 37.46% ( -1.05) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
25.75% ( 1.02) | 74.24% ( -1.02) |
Score Analysis |
Lille | Draw | Metz |
1-0 @ 10.16% ( -0.28) 2-0 @ 10.14% ( -0.28) 2-1 @ 9.96% ( 0.01) 3-0 @ 6.75% ( -0.19) 3-1 @ 6.62% ( 0.01) 4-0 @ 3.37% ( -0.09) 4-1 @ 3.31% ( 0) 3-2 @ 3.25% ( 0.1) 4-2 @ 1.62% ( 0.05) 5-0 @ 1.34% ( -0.04) 5-1 @ 1.32% ( 0) Other @ 3.08% Total : 60.92% | 1-1 @ 9.98% ( 0.01) 0-0 @ 5.09% ( -0.15) 2-2 @ 4.89% ( 0.14) 3-3 @ 1.06% ( 0.06) Other @ 0.14% Total : 21.16% | 0-1 @ 5% ( 0) 1-2 @ 4.9% ( 0.14) 0-2 @ 2.45% ( 0.07) 1-3 @ 1.6% ( 0.09) 2-3 @ 1.6% ( 0.09) Other @ 2.37% Total : 17.92% |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
C | Paris Saint-GermainPSG | 33 | 21 | 10 | 2 | 79 | 33 | 46 | 73 |
2 | MonacoMonaco | 33 | 19 | 7 | 7 | 64 | 42 | 22 | 64 |
3 | Lille | 33 | 16 | 10 | 7 | 50 | 32 | 18 | 58 |
4 | Brest | 33 | 16 | 10 | 7 | 50 | 34 | 16 | 58 |
5 | Nice | 33 | 15 | 9 | 9 | 38 | 27 | 11 | 54 |
6 | Lens | 33 | 14 | 8 | 11 | 43 | 35 | 8 | 50 |
7 | Lyon | 33 | 15 | 5 | 13 | 47 | 54 | -7 | 50 |
8 | Marseille | 33 | 12 | 11 | 10 | 50 | 40 | 10 | 47 |
9 | Rennes | 33 | 12 | 10 | 11 | 52 | 44 | 8 | 46 |
10 | Reims | 33 | 12 | 8 | 13 | 40 | 46 | -6 | 44 |
11 | Toulouse | 33 | 11 | 10 | 12 | 42 | 43 | -1 | 43 |
12 | Montpellier HSCMontpellier | 33 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 41 | 46 | -5 | 40 |
13 | StrasbourgStrasbourg | 33 | 10 | 9 | 14 | 37 | 48 | -11 | 39 |
14 | NantesNantes | 33 | 9 | 6 | 18 | 30 | 51 | -21 | 33 |
15 | Le HavreLe Havre | 33 | 7 | 11 | 15 | 33 | 43 | -10 | 32 |
16 | Metz | 33 | 8 | 5 | 20 | 35 | 56 | -21 | 29 |
17 | Lorient | 33 | 6 | 8 | 19 | 38 | 66 | -28 | 26 |
R | Clermont | 33 | 5 | 10 | 18 | 26 | 55 | -29 | 25 |
> Ligue 1 Full Table |