Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a FC Cincinnati win with a probability of 40.85%. A win for Toronto had a probability of 34.18% and a draw had a probability of 25%.
The most likely scoreline for a FC Cincinnati win was 1-2 with a probability of 8.78%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (8.7%) and 0-2 (6.51%). The likeliest Toronto win was 2-1 (7.91%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.73%). The actual scoreline of 2-3 was predicted with a 3% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that FC Cincinnati would win this match.
Result | ||
Toronto | Draw | FC Cincinnati |
34.18% ( 0.39) | 24.97% ( 0.07) | 40.85% ( -0.46) |
Both teams to score 57.46% ( -0.15) |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
54.12% ( -0.24) | 45.88% ( 0.23) |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
31.81% ( -0.23) | 68.19% ( 0.23) |
Toronto Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
74.03% ( 0.12) | 25.97% ( -0.12) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
39.02% ( 0.16) | 60.98% ( -0.16) |
FC Cincinnati Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
77.61% ( -0.33) | 22.39% ( 0.33) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
44.11% ( -0.49) | 55.89% ( 0.49) |
Score Analysis |
Toronto | Draw | FC Cincinnati |
2-1 @ 7.91% ( 0.06) 1-0 @ 7.84% ( 0.11) 2-0 @ 5.28% ( 0.09) 3-1 @ 3.56% ( 0.04) 3-2 @ 2.66% ( 0) 3-0 @ 2.38% ( 0.05) 4-1 @ 1.2% ( 0.02) Other @ 3.36% Total : 34.18% | 1-1 @ 11.73% ( 0.05) 2-2 @ 5.92% ( -0.02) 0-0 @ 5.81% ( 0.06) 3-3 @ 1.33% ( -0.01) Other @ 0.18% Total : 24.97% | 1-2 @ 8.78% ( -0.05) 0-1 @ 8.7% ( 0) 0-2 @ 6.51% ( -0.06) 1-3 @ 4.38% ( -0.07) 0-3 @ 3.25% ( -0.06) 2-3 @ 2.95% ( -0.04) 1-4 @ 1.64% ( -0.04) 0-4 @ 1.22% ( -0.04) 2-4 @ 1.11% ( -0.02) Other @ 2.32% Total : 40.85% |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
1 | Inter MiamiInter Miami | 17 | 10 | 4 | 3 | 39 | 24 | 15 | 34 |
2 | FC CincinnatiCincinnati | 16 | 10 | 3 | 3 | 23 | 16 | 7 | 33 |
3 | New York City FCNY City | 16 | 9 | 2 | 5 | 24 | 17 | 7 | 29 |
4 | New York Red BullsNY Red Bulls | 15 | 7 | 5 | 3 | 28 | 22 | 6 | 26 |
5 | Columbus Crew | 14 | 6 | 6 | 2 | 21 | 13 | 8 | 24 |
6 | Toronto | 16 | 7 | 2 | 7 | 24 | 24 | 0 | 23 |
7 | Charlotte FCCharlotte FC | 16 | 6 | 4 | 6 | 15 | 16 | -1 | 22 |
8 | Philadelphia UnionPhiladelphia | 15 | 4 | 7 | 4 | 25 | 21 | 4 | 19 |
9 | Nashville SCNashville | 15 | 4 | 7 | 4 | 19 | 20 | -1 | 19 |
10 | DC United | 16 | 4 | 6 | 6 | 23 | 29 | -6 | 18 |
11 | Orlando City | 15 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 16 | 23 | -7 | 17 |
12 | Atlanta UnitedAtlanta | 15 | 4 | 4 | 7 | 20 | 18 | 2 | 16 |
13 | CF MontrealMontreal | 15 | 4 | 4 | 7 | 21 | 33 | -12 | 16 |
14 | Chicago Fire | 16 | 2 | 6 | 8 | 15 | 28 | -13 | 12 |
15 | New England RevolutionNew England | 13 | 2 | 1 | 10 | 9 | 26 | -17 | 7 |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
1 | Real Salt LakeSalt Lake | 16 | 8 | 6 | 2 | 31 | 18 | 13 | 30 |
2 | Los Angeles GalaxyLA Galaxy | 16 | 7 | 7 | 2 | 30 | 23 | 7 | 28 |
3 | Los Angeles FCLos Angeles | 15 | 8 | 3 | 4 | 27 | 19 | 8 | 27 |
4 | Minnesota UnitedMinnesota Utd | 14 | 7 | 4 | 3 | 24 | 19 | 5 | 25 |
5 | Austin FCAustin | 16 | 6 | 5 | 5 | 20 | 20 | 0 | 23 |
6 | Vancouver WhitecapsVancouver | 15 | 6 | 4 | 5 | 22 | 18 | 4 | 22 |
7 | Colorado RapidsColorado | 16 | 6 | 4 | 6 | 28 | 29 | -1 | 22 |
8 | Houston DynamoHouston | 15 | 6 | 3 | 6 | 16 | 16 | 0 | 21 |
9 | Portland TimbersPortland | 16 | 5 | 4 | 7 | 30 | 30 | 0 | 19 |
10 | Seattle SoundersSeattle | 16 | 4 | 6 | 6 | 19 | 19 | 0 | 18 |
11 | St Louis City | 14 | 3 | 7 | 4 | 20 | 22 | -2 | 16 |
12 | Dallas | 14 | 3 | 4 | 7 | 17 | 23 | -6 | 13 |
13 | Sporting Kansas CityKansas | 15 | 2 | 5 | 8 | 23 | 28 | -5 | 11 |
14 | San Jose EarthquakesEarthquakes | 16 | 3 | 2 | 11 | 24 | 39 | -15 | 11 |