Ligue 1

Ligue 1 | Gameweek 26

Mar 15, 2024 at 8pm UK

Stadium de Toulouse (Toulouse)

Toulouse
2 - 3
Lyon

Dallinga (53'), Sierro (59' pen.)
Spierings (43'), Donnum (45+2')

FT(HT: 0-1)

Lacazette (33'), Cherki (77'), O'Brien (81')
Tolisso (37'), Mata (45+1')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Friday's Ligue 1 clash between Toulouse and Lyon, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Toulouse

All competitions

Ligue 1

Last Game: Le Havre 1-0 Toulouse
Sunday, March 10 at 2pm in Ligue 1

Goals
for

Top scorers

Lyon

All competitions

Ligue 1

Last Game: Lorient 0-2 Lyon
Saturday, March 9 at 4pm in Ligue 1

Goals
for

Top scorers

Both sides are in decent form at the moment, but Lyon have been a little more consistent, and we believe their overall balance and momentum will enable them to collect another three points even if Lacazette is unavailable. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Lyon win with a probability of 50.25%. A win for Toulouse had a probability of 25.29% and a draw had a probability of 24.5%.

The most likely scoreline for a Lyon win was 0-1 with a probability of 10.59%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (9.57%) and 0-2 (8.73%). The likeliest Toulouse win was 1-0 (7.05%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.61%). The actual scoreline of 2-3 was predicted with a 2.9% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Lyon would win this match.

Result
Toulouse	Draw	Lyon
25.29% ( 0.24)	24.47% ( 0.1)	50.25% ( -0.33)

Both teams to score 53.78% (

-0.08)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

51.73% (

-0.21)

48.28% (

0.21)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

29.58% (

-0.19)

70.42% (

0.2)

Toulouse Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

66.58% (

0.08)

33.42% (

-0.08)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

29.96% (

0.09)

70.05% (

-0.09)

Lyon Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

80.77% (

-0.21)

19.23% (

0.22)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

49.06% (

-0.36)

50.94% (

0.36)

Score Analysis

Toulouse 25.29%

Lyon 50.24%

Draw 24.47%

Toulouse	Draw	Lyon
1-0 @ 7.05% ( 0.08) 2-1 @ 6.37% ( 0.04) 2-0 @ 3.86% ( 0.05) 3-1 @ 2.33% ( 0.02) 3-2 @ 1.92% ( 0) 3-0 @ 1.41% ( 0.02) Other @ 2.36% Total : 25.29%	1-1 @ 11.61% ( 0.05) 0-0 @ 6.43% ( 0.06) 2-2 @ 5.25% ( -0) 3-3 @ 1.05% ( -0.01) Other @ 0.13% Total : 24.47%	0-1 @ 10.59% ( 0.02) 1-2 @ 9.57% ( -0.02) 0-2 @ 8.73% ( -0.04) 1-3 @ 5.26% ( -0.05) 0-3 @ 4.8% ( -0.06) 2-3 @ 2.88% ( -0.02) 1-4 @ 2.17% ( -0.03) 0-4 @ 1.98% ( -0.04) 2-4 @ 1.19% ( -0.02) Other @ 3.07% Total : 50.24%