Troyes have shown that they can compete with the top sides in this league, but they struggle to maintain the high intensity needed at this level for 90 minutes.
Lille have been uncharacteristically poor defensively early on in this campaign, already conceding as many goals (23) as they did in their championship triumph last season, although they have scored in their previous eight matches in all competitions and should have enough firepower to get past Troyes.
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Lille win with a probability of 60.42%. A draw had a probability of 23.8% and a win for Troyes had a probability of 15.74%.
The most likely scoreline for a Lille win was 1-0 with a probability of 15.22%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (12.79%) and 2-1 (9.22%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.97%), while for a Troyes win it was 0-1 (6.53%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 9.2% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted a 2-1 win for Lille in this match and our data analysis correctly predicted the win for Lille.
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