Ligue 1

Ligue 1 | Gameweek 9

Oct 1, 2022 at 8pm UK

Parc des Princes

PSG
2 - 1
Nice

Messi (29'), Mbappe (83')
Sarabia (90+1')

FT(HT: 1-0)

Laborde (47')
Dante (27')

Lionel Messi, Kylian Mbappe send Paris Saint-Germain back top of Ligue 1

Lionel Messi scores the 60th direct free kick of his career and Kylian Mbappe comes off the bench to score the winner as PSG move top with a 2-1 victory over Nice.

Oct 1, 21:51

The Match

Form, Standings, Stats

Paris Saint-Germain

All competitions

Ligue 1

Last Game: Lyon 0-1 PSG
Sunday, September 18 at 7.45pm in Ligue 1

Goals
for

Top scorers

Nice

All competitions

Ligue 1

Last Game: Nice 0-1 Angers
Sunday, September 18 at 2pm in Ligue 1

Goals
for

Top scorers

We said: Paris Saint-Germain 2-0 Nice

PSG may be without a couple of first-team regulars in Kimpembe and Verratti, but with all due respect to Nice, breaking down a backline comprising 38-year-old Dante and 20-year-old newcomer Viti should not be a problem for Messi and co. Nice have been able to keep things tight in defence throughout the season, but a lack of attacking ingenuity should be their downfall once again, as Galtier gets the last laugh over his former club. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Paris Saint-Germain win with a probability of 78.66%. A draw had a probability of 14.3% and a win for Nice had a probability of 7.07%.

The most likely scoreline for a Paris Saint-Germain win was 2-0 with a probability of 13.75%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 3-0 (11.54%) and 1-0 (10.93%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (6.78%), while for a Nice win it was 0-1 (2.69%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with an 8.5% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Paris Saint-Germain would win this match.

Result
Paris Saint-Germain	Draw	Nice
78.66% ( -0.11)	14.27% ( 0.08)	7.07% ( 0.03)

Both teams to score 42.46% (

-0.14)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

60.66% (

-0.28)

39.34% (

0.28)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

38.32% (

-0.3)

61.68% (

0.3)

Paris Saint-Germain Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

91.92% (

-0.09)

8.07% (

0.09)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

71.6% (

-0.23)

28.39% (

0.23)

Nice Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

46.18% (

-0.11)

53.81% (

0.11)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

12.84% (

-0.07)

87.16% (

0.07)

Score Analysis

Paris Saint-Germain 78.65%

Nice 7.07%

Draw 14.27%

Paris Saint-Germain	Draw	Nice
2-0 @ 13.75% ( 0.06) 3-0 @ 11.54% 1-0 @ 10.93% ( 0.1) 2-1 @ 8.53% ( 0.01) 4-0 @ 7.26% ( -0.03) 3-1 @ 7.15% ( -0.02) 4-1 @ 4.5% ( -0.04) 5-0 @ 3.65% ( -0.03) 5-1 @ 2.26% ( -0.03) 3-2 @ 2.22% ( -0.01) 6-0 @ 1.53% ( -0.02) 4-2 @ 1.39% ( -0.02) 6-1 @ 0.95% ( -0.02) Other @ 2.98% Total : 78.65%	1-1 @ 6.78% ( 0.04) 0-0 @ 4.35% ( 0.06) 2-2 @ 2.64% ( -0.01) Other @ 0.51% Total : 14.27%	0-1 @ 2.69% ( 0.03) 1-2 @ 2.1% ( 0) Other @ 2.28% Total : 7.07%