Ligue 1

Ligue 1 | Gameweek 28

Mar 18, 2023 at 4pm UK

Stadium Municipal

Toulouse
0 - 2
Lille

Nicolaisen (85'), Sierro (90+1')

FT(HT: 0-0)

Alexsandro (85'), Bayo (90+11')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Saturday's Ligue 1 clash between Toulouse and Lille, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Toulouse

All competitions

Ligue 1

Last Game: Angers 0-2 Toulouse
Sunday, March 12 at 2pm in Ligue 1

Goals
for

Top scorers

Lille

All competitions

Ligue 1

Last Game: Lille 3-3 Lyon
Friday, March 10 at 8pm in Ligue 1

Goals
for

Top scorers

A closely-fought contest between two inconsistent teams is set to be played out at Stadium TFC, and although Lille will be regarded as slight favourites to come out on top, we believe that Toulouse will follow up last weekend's win with a hard-fought point on home soil. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Lille win with a probability of 43.33%. A win for Toulouse had a probability of 33.56% and a draw had a probability of 23.1%.

The most likely scoreline for a Lille win was 1-2 with a probability of 8.87%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (6.8%) and 0-2 (5.9%). The likeliest Toulouse win was 2-1 (7.69%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.23%). The actual scoreline of 0-2 was predicted with a 5.9% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Lille would win this match.

Result
Toulouse	Draw	Lille
33.56% ( 0.01)	23.11% ( -0.06)	43.33% ( 0.06)

Both teams to score 64.06% (

0.24)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

62.82% (

0.31)

37.18% (

-0.31)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

40.62% (

0.34)

59.38% (

-0.33)

Toulouse Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

77.78% (

0.15)

22.22% (

-0.15)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

44.36% (

0.22)

55.64% (

-0.22)

Lille Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

82.36% (

0.15)

17.64% (

-0.15)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

51.75% (

0.26)

48.25% (

-0.25)

Score Analysis

Toulouse 33.56%

Lille 43.33%

Draw 23.11%

Toulouse	Draw	Lille
2-1 @ 7.69% ( -0.01) 1-0 @ 5.9% ( -0.06) 2-0 @ 4.44% ( -0.03) 3-1 @ 3.86% ( 0.01) 3-2 @ 3.35% ( 0.03) 3-0 @ 2.22% ( -0) 4-1 @ 1.45% ( 0.01) 4-2 @ 1.26% ( 0.02) Other @ 3.39% Total : 33.56%	1-1 @ 10.23% ( -0.05) 2-2 @ 6.67% ( 0.02) 0-0 @ 3.92% ( -0.06) 3-3 @ 1.94% ( 0.02) Other @ 0.35% Total : 23.11%	1-2 @ 8.87% ( -0.01) 0-1 @ 6.8% ( -0.07) 0-2 @ 5.9% ( -0.03) 1-3 @ 5.13% ( 0.02) 2-3 @ 3.86% ( 0.03) 0-3 @ 3.41% ( -0) 1-4 @ 2.23% ( 0.02) 2-4 @ 1.67% ( 0.02) 0-4 @ 1.48% ( 0.01) Other @ 3.98% Total : 43.33%