Ligue 1

Ligue 1 | Gameweek 28

Mar 19, 2023 at 2pm UK

Stade de l'Aube

Troyes
2 - 2
Brest

Ripart (34'), Lopes (38')
Ripart (45+2')

FT(HT: 2-1)

Lees-Melou (30'), Del Castillo (74' pen.)
Lees-Melou (90+3')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Sunday's Ligue 1 clash between Troyes and Brest, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Troyes

All competitions

Last Game: Lorient 2-0 Troyes
Sunday, March 12 at 2pm in Ligue 1

Goals
for

Top scorers

Brest

All competitions

Last Game: Brest 1-2 PSG
Saturday, March 11 at 8pm in Ligue 1

Goals
for

Top scorers

Given the current state of affairs at the bottom end of the Ligue 1 table, we expect Troyes and Brest to produce a cagey encounter on Sunday, with a goalless draw looking like the most probable outcome. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Brest win with a probability of 37.67%. A win for Troyes had a probability of 33.86% and a draw had a probability of 28.5%.

The most likely scoreline for a Brest win was 0-1 with a probability of 12.03%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (7.83%) and 0-2 (7.1%). The likeliest Troyes win was 1-0 (11.24%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.27%). The actual scoreline of 2-2 was predicted with a 4.3% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted a draw in this match.

Result
Troyes	Draw	Brest
33.86% ( -0.07)	28.47% ( 0.09)	37.67% ( -0.02)

Both teams to score 46.28% (

-0.26)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

39.95% (

-0.32)

60.05% (

0.32)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

19.72% (

-0.24)

80.28% (

0.25)

Troyes Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

66.82% (

-0.21)

33.18% (

0.21)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

30.21% (

-0.24)

69.79% (

0.24)

Brest Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

69.27% (

-0.17)

30.73% (

0.17)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

33.01% (

-0.2)

66.99% (

0.2)

Score Analysis

Troyes 33.85%

Brest 37.67%

Draw 28.46%

Troyes	Draw	Brest
1-0 @ 11.24% ( 0.07) 2-1 @ 7.32% ( -0.03) 2-0 @ 6.2% ( 0) 3-1 @ 2.69% ( -0.03) 3-0 @ 2.28% ( -0.01) 3-2 @ 1.59% ( -0.02) Other @ 2.53% Total : 33.85%	1-1 @ 13.27% ( 0.02) 0-0 @ 10.19% ( 0.12) 2-2 @ 4.32% ( -0.04) Other @ 0.68% Total : 28.46%	0-1 @ 12.03% ( 0.09) 1-2 @ 7.83% ( -0.02) 0-2 @ 7.1% ( 0.02) 1-3 @ 3.08% ( -0.02) 0-3 @ 2.79% ( -0.01) 2-3 @ 1.7% ( -0.02) 1-4 @ 0.91% ( -0.01) Other @ 2.23% Total : 37.67%