Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Toronto win with a probability of 45.54%. A win for FC Cincinnati had a probability of 30.57% and a draw had a probability of 23.9%.
The most likely scoreline for a Toronto win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.24%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (8.28%) and 2-0 (6.93%). The likeliest FC Cincinnati win was 1-2 (7.35%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.03%). The actual scoreline of 3-4 was predicted with a 0.5% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted that FC Cincinnati would win this match.
Result | ||
Toronto | Draw | FC Cincinnati |
45.54% ( 0.86) | 23.89% ( -0.19) | 30.57% ( -0.67) |
Both teams to score 59.82% ( 0.32) |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
57.84% ( 0.58) | 42.16% ( -0.58) |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
35.43% ( 0.57) | 64.56% ( -0.57) |
Toronto Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
81.26% ( 0.59) | 18.74% ( -0.59) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
49.88% ( 0.98) | 50.12% ( -0.98) |
FC Cincinnati Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
73.62% ( -0.14) | 26.38% ( 0.14) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
38.46% ( -0.19) | 61.53% ( 0.19) |
Score Analysis |
Toronto | Draw | FC Cincinnati |
2-1 @ 9.24% ( 0.07) 1-0 @ 8.28% ( -0.06) 2-0 @ 6.93% ( 0.08) 3-1 @ 5.16% ( 0.14) 3-0 @ 3.87% ( 0.12) 3-2 @ 3.44% ( 0.08) 4-1 @ 2.16% ( 0.1) 4-0 @ 1.62% ( 0.08) 4-2 @ 1.44% ( 0.06) Other @ 3.41% Total : 45.54% | 1-1 @ 11.03% ( -0.12) 2-2 @ 6.15% ( 0.02) 0-0 @ 4.94% ( -0.13) 3-3 @ 1.53% ( 0.03) Other @ 0.23% Total : 23.89% | 1-2 @ 7.35% ( -0.11) 0-1 @ 6.59% ( -0.2) 0-2 @ 4.39% ( -0.15) 1-3 @ 3.27% ( -0.06) 2-3 @ 2.73% ( -0) 0-3 @ 1.95% ( -0.08) 1-4 @ 1.09% ( -0.02) 2-4 @ 0.91% ( -0) Other @ 2.3% Total : 30.57% |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
1 | Inter MiamiInter Miami | 17 | 10 | 4 | 3 | 39 | 24 | 15 | 34 |
2 | FC CincinnatiCincinnati | 16 | 10 | 3 | 3 | 23 | 16 | 7 | 33 |
3 | New York City FCNY City | 16 | 9 | 2 | 5 | 24 | 17 | 7 | 29 |
4 | New York Red BullsNY Red Bulls | 15 | 7 | 5 | 3 | 28 | 22 | 6 | 26 |
5 | Columbus Crew | 14 | 6 | 6 | 2 | 21 | 13 | 8 | 24 |
6 | Toronto | 16 | 7 | 2 | 7 | 24 | 24 | 0 | 23 |
7 | Charlotte FCCharlotte FC | 16 | 6 | 4 | 6 | 15 | 16 | -1 | 22 |
8 | Philadelphia UnionPhiladelphia | 15 | 4 | 7 | 4 | 25 | 21 | 4 | 19 |
9 | Nashville SCNashville | 15 | 4 | 7 | 4 | 19 | 20 | -1 | 19 |
10 | DC United | 16 | 4 | 6 | 6 | 23 | 29 | -6 | 18 |
11 | Orlando City | 15 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 16 | 23 | -7 | 17 |
12 | Atlanta UnitedAtlanta | 15 | 4 | 4 | 7 | 20 | 18 | 2 | 16 |
13 | CF MontrealMontreal | 15 | 4 | 4 | 7 | 21 | 33 | -12 | 16 |
14 | Chicago Fire | 16 | 2 | 6 | 8 | 15 | 28 | -13 | 12 |
15 | New England RevolutionNew England | 13 | 2 | 1 | 10 | 9 | 26 | -17 | 7 |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
1 | Real Salt LakeSalt Lake | 16 | 8 | 6 | 2 | 31 | 18 | 13 | 30 |
2 | Los Angeles GalaxyLA Galaxy | 16 | 7 | 7 | 2 | 30 | 23 | 7 | 28 |
3 | Los Angeles FCLos Angeles | 15 | 8 | 3 | 4 | 27 | 19 | 8 | 27 |
4 | Minnesota UnitedMinnesota Utd | 14 | 7 | 4 | 3 | 24 | 19 | 5 | 25 |
5 | Austin FCAustin | 16 | 6 | 5 | 5 | 20 | 20 | 0 | 23 |
6 | Vancouver WhitecapsVancouver | 15 | 6 | 4 | 5 | 22 | 18 | 4 | 22 |
7 | Colorado RapidsColorado | 16 | 6 | 4 | 6 | 28 | 29 | -1 | 22 |
8 | Houston DynamoHouston | 15 | 6 | 3 | 6 | 16 | 16 | 0 | 21 |
9 | Portland TimbersPortland | 16 | 5 | 4 | 7 | 30 | 30 | 0 | 19 |
10 | Seattle SoundersSeattle | 16 | 4 | 6 | 6 | 19 | 19 | 0 | 18 |
11 | St Louis City | 14 | 3 | 7 | 4 | 20 | 22 | -2 | 16 |
12 | Dallas | 14 | 3 | 4 | 7 | 17 | 23 | -6 | 13 |
13 | Sporting Kansas CityKansas | 15 | 2 | 5 | 8 | 23 | 28 | -5 | 11 |
14 | San Jose EarthquakesEarthquakes | 16 | 3 | 2 | 11 | 24 | 39 | -15 | 11 |