Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Chesterfield win with a probability of 49.09%. A win for Dorking Wanderers had a probability of 27.07% and a draw had a probability of 23.8%.
The most likely scoreline for a Chesterfield win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.54%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (9.22%) and 2-0 (7.88%). The likeliest Dorking Wanderers win was 1-2 (6.75%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.15%). The actual scoreline of 4-3 was predicted with a 0.6% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Chesterfield would win this match.
Result | ||
Chesterfield | Draw | Dorking Wanderers |
49.09% ( -0.73) | 23.84% ( 0.4) | 27.07% ( 0.34) |
Both teams to score 57.49% ( -1.06) |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
55.87% ( -1.54) | 44.13% ( 1.53) |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
33.49% ( -1.51) | 66.51% ( 1.51) |
Chesterfield Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
81.91% ( -0.86) | 18.09% ( 0.86) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
50.98% ( -1.5) | 49.02% ( 1.5) |
Dorking Wanderers Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
70.19% ( -0.55) | 29.81% ( 0.55) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
34.11% ( -0.67) | 65.89% ( 0.67) |
Score Analysis |
Chesterfield | Draw | Dorking Wanderers |
2-1 @ 9.54% ( -0.04) 1-0 @ 9.22% ( 0.36) 2-0 @ 7.88% ( 0.09) 3-1 @ 5.44% ( -0.18) 3-0 @ 4.49% ( -0.08) 3-2 @ 3.29% ( -0.16) 4-1 @ 2.33% ( -0.15) 4-0 @ 1.92% ( -0.09) 4-2 @ 1.41% ( -0.11) Other @ 3.57% Total : 49.09% | 1-1 @ 11.15% ( 0.26) 2-2 @ 5.77% ( -0.11) 0-0 @ 5.39% ( 0.35) 3-3 @ 1.33% ( -0.09) Other @ 0.19% Total : 23.83% | 1-2 @ 6.75% ( 0.06) 0-1 @ 6.53% ( 0.33) 0-2 @ 3.95% ( 0.14) 1-3 @ 2.72% ( -0.02) 2-3 @ 2.33% ( -0.08) 0-3 @ 1.59% ( 0.03) Other @ 3.19% Total : 27.07% |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
C | Chesterfield | 46 | 31 | 5 | 10 | 106 | 65 | 41 | 98 |
2 | Barnet | 46 | 26 | 8 | 12 | 91 | 60 | 31 | 86 |
3 | Bromley | 46 | 22 | 15 | 9 | 73 | 49 | 24 | 81 |
4 | AltrinchamAltrincham | 46 | 22 | 11 | 13 | 84 | 59 | 25 | 77 |
5 | Solihull MoorsSolihull | 46 | 21 | 13 | 12 | 71 | 62 | 9 | 76 |
6 | Gateshead | 46 | 22 | 9 | 15 | 88 | 64 | 24 | 75 |
7 | Halifax TownHalifax | 46 | 19 | 14 | 13 | 58 | 50 | 8 | 71 |
8 | Aldershot TownAldershot | 46 | 20 | 9 | 17 | 74 | 83 | -9 | 69 |
9 | Southend UnitedSouthend | 46 | 21 | 12 | 13 | 70 | 45 | 25 | 65 |
10 | Oldham AthleticOldham | 46 | 15 | 18 | 13 | 63 | 60 | 3 | 63 |
11 | Rochdale | 46 | 16 | 14 | 16 | 69 | 64 | 5 | 62 |
12 | Hartlepool UnitedHartlepool | 46 | 17 | 9 | 20 | 70 | 82 | -12 | 60 |
13 | Eastleigh | 46 | 16 | 11 | 19 | 73 | 87 | -14 | 59 |
14 | Maidenhead UnitedMaidenhead | 46 | 15 | 13 | 18 | 60 | 67 | -7 | 58 |
15 | Dagenham & RedbridgeDag & Red | 46 | 14 | 14 | 18 | 69 | 63 | 6 | 56 |
16 | WealdstoneWealdstone | 46 | 15 | 11 | 20 | 60 | 72 | -12 | 56 |
17 | Woking | 46 | 15 | 10 | 21 | 49 | 55 | -6 | 55 |
18 | Fylde | 46 | 15 | 10 | 21 | 74 | 82 | -8 | 55 |
19 | Ebbsfleet | 46 | 14 | 12 | 20 | 59 | 74 | -15 | 54 |
20 | York City | 46 | 12 | 17 | 17 | 55 | 69 | -14 | 53 |
21 | Boreham WoodBoreham Wood | 46 | 12 | 16 | 18 | 59 | 73 | -14 | 52 |
22 | Kidderminster HarriersKidderminster | 46 | 11 | 13 | 22 | 40 | 59 | -19 | 46 |
23 | Dorking WanderersDorking | 46 | 12 | 9 | 25 | 54 | 85 | -31 | 45 |
24 | Oxford CityOxford City | 46 | 8 | 9 | 29 | 54 | 94 | -40 | 33 |
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