Primeira Liga | Gameweek 11

Oct 29, 2022 at 8.30pm UK

Estádio Municipal de Arouca

Arouca
1 - 0
Sporting Lisbon

Basso (47')
Simao (3'), Opoku (27'), Ruiz (67'), De Arruabarrena (74'), Esgaio (90+7')

FT(HT: 0-0)

Inacio (30'), Santos (31'), Coates (90+7')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Saturday's Primeira Liga clash between Arouca and Sporting Lisbon, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Arouca

All competitions

Last Game: Maritimo 1-1 Arouca
Sunday, October 23 at 3.30pm in Primeira Liga

Goals
for

Top scorers

Sporting Lisbon

All competitions

Primeira Liga

Last Game: Spurs 1-1 Sporting Lisbon
Wednesday, October 26 at 8pm in Champions League

Goals
for

Top scorers

We said: Arouca 1-3 Sporting Lisbon

Looking at past results between the sides, Sporting Lisbon head into the weekend as firm favourites to come away with all three points, having won each of their previous 12 encounters. The Leoes boast a significantly superior and more experienced squad and we are backing them to take the positives from their draw at Tottenham and pick up all three points. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Sporting Lisbon win with a probability of 63.72%. A draw had a probability of 20.5% and a win for Arouca had a probability of 15.75%.

The most likely scoreline for a Sporting Lisbon win was 0-2 with a probability of 11.03%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (10.85%) and 1-2 (9.9%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (9.74%), while for an Arouca win it was 1-0 (4.79%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 4.8% likelihood.

Result
Arouca	Draw	Sporting Lisbon
15.75% ( 0.13)	20.53% ( 0.21)	63.72% ( -0.34)

Both teams to score 51.47% (

-0.38)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

56.09% (

-0.66)

43.91% (

0.66)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

33.7% (

-0.65)

66.3% (

0.65)

Arouca Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

59.23% (

-0.23)

40.77% (

0.23)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

22.65% (

-0.21)

77.35% (

0.21)

Sporting Lisbon Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

86.9% (

-0.3)

13.1% (

0.3)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

60.27% (

-0.62)

39.73% (

0.61)

Score Analysis

Arouca 15.75%

Sporting Lisbon 63.71%

Draw 20.53%

Arouca	Draw	Sporting Lisbon
1-0 @ 4.79% ( 0.11) 2-1 @ 4.37% ( 0.02) 2-0 @ 2.15% ( 0.03) 3-2 @ 1.33% ( -0.02) 3-1 @ 1.31% ( -0) Other @ 1.8% Total : 15.75%	1-1 @ 9.74% ( 0.11) 0-0 @ 5.34% ( 0.15) 2-2 @ 4.44% ( -0.03) Other @ 1.01% Total : 20.53%	0-2 @ 11.03% ( 0.07) 0-1 @ 10.85% ( 0.19) 1-2 @ 9.9% ( -0) 0-3 @ 7.47% ( -0.04) 1-3 @ 6.71% ( -0.08) 0-4 @ 3.8% ( -0.06) 1-4 @ 3.41% ( -0.08) 2-3 @ 3.01% ( -0.05) 0-5 @ 1.54% ( -0.04) 2-4 @ 1.53% ( -0.05) 1-5 @ 1.39% ( -0.05) Other @ 3.08% Total : 63.71%