Primeira Liga | Gameweek 25

Mar 5, 2022 at 8.30pm UK

Sporting Lisbon
2 - 0
Arouca

Slimani (46', 52')
Essugo (26'), Coates (36')

FT(HT: 0-0)

Esgaio (15'), Simao (40'), Galovic (65'), Ruiz (85')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Saturday's Primeira Liga clash between Sporting Lisbon and Arouca, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Sporting Lisbon

Last Six:

Last Game: Sporting Lisbon 4-0 Santa Clara
Saturday, May 14 at 8.30pm in Primeira Liga

Current League Standings		P	GD	PTS
1	Porto	34	64	91
2	Sporting Lisbon	33	47	82
3	Benfica	33	47	71

Arouca

Last Six:

Last Game: Arouca 0-0 Belenenses
Saturday, May 14 at 3.30pm in Primeira Liga

Current League Standings		P	GD	PTS
14	Vizela	33	-18	33
15	Arouca	33	-22	31
16	Moreirense	33	-17	29

We said: Sporting Lisbon 3-0 Arouca

Sporting Lisbon will be looking to restore some pride after their cup defeat against rivals Porto last time out. They will fancy their chances against an inconsistent Arouca side who they have gotten the better of in each of their last 11 encounters since 2013. Looking at the gulf in class and quality between the two sides, we are tipping Sporting Lisbon to come away with all three points unscathed. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Sporting Lisbon win with a probability of 63.25%. A draw had a probability of 20.8% and a win for Arouca had a probability of 15.96%.

The most likely scoreline for a Sporting Lisbon win was 2-0 with a probability of 11.08%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (11.05%) and 2-1 (9.9%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (9.87%), while for an Arouca win it was 0-1 (4.92%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with an 11.1% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 2-0 win for Sporting Lisbon in this match and our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted the win for Sporting Lisbon.

Result
Sporting Lisbon	Draw	Arouca
63.25%	20.79%	15.96%

Both teams to score 51.11%

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

55.36%

44.64%

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

32.99%

67%

Sporting Lisbon Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

86.53%

13.46%

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

59.54%

40.46%

Arouca Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

59.06%

40.94%

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

22.5%

77.5%

Score Analysis

Sporting Lisbon 63.25%

Arouca 15.96%

Draw 20.79%

Sporting Lisbon	Draw	Arouca
2-0 @ 11.08% 1-0 @ 11.05% 2-1 @ 9.9% 3-0 @ 7.41% 3-1 @ 6.62% 4-0 @ 3.71% 4-1 @ 3.32% 3-2 @ 2.95% 5-0 @ 1.49% 4-2 @ 1.48% 5-1 @ 1.33% Other @ 2.92% Total : 63.25%	1-1 @ 9.87% 0-0 @ 5.51% 2-2 @ 4.42% Other @ 0.98% Total : 20.79%	0-1 @ 4.92% 1-2 @ 4.41% 0-2 @ 2.2% 2-3 @ 1.32% 1-3 @ 1.31% Other @ 1.8% Total : 15.96%