Primeira Liga | Gameweek 33

May 7, 2022 at 6pm UK

Estádio da Luz

Benfica
0 - 1
Porto

Dias (16'), Ramos (24'), Nunez (53'), Lazaro (62'), Almeida (71'), Otamendi (71'), Mario (82'), Weigl (84'), Yaremchuk (90'), Gilberto (90+6')

FT(HT: 0-0)

Sanusi (90+4')
Grujic (30'), Pepe (40'), Taremi (79'), Costa (90+1')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Saturday's Primeira Liga clash between Benfica and Porto, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Benfica

Last Six:

Last Game: Pacos de Ferreira 0-2 Benfica
Friday, May 13 at 8.15pm in Primeira Liga

Current League Standings		P	GD	PTS
2	Sporting Lisbon	33	47	82
3	Benfica	33	47	71
4	Braga	32	20	62

Porto

Last Six:

Last Game: Porto 3-1 Tondela
Sunday, May 22 at 5.15pm in Taca de Portugal

Next Game: Porto vs. Tondela
Sunday, July 31 at 8.45pm in Portuguese Super Cup

Current League Standings		P	GD	PTS
1	Porto	34	64	91
2	Sporting Lisbon	33	47	82
3	Benfica	33	47	71

Saturday's game sees two of the Portuguese "Big Three" go head to head and this makes for a thrilling and exciting watch. Porto are unbeaten in each of their last eight games against the hosts and we predict they will keep this fine run going and come away with a slender victory.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats, suggests the most likely outcome of this match is a Porto win with a probability of 39.68%. A win for Benfica has a probability of 35.91% and a draw has a probability of 24.4%.

The most likely scoreline is Benfica 1-1 Porto with a probability of 11.3% and the second most likely scoreline is Benfica 1-2 Porto with a probability of 8.64%.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Porto win with a probability of 39.68%. A win for Benfica had a probability of 35.91% and a draw had a probability of 24.4%.

The most likely scoreline for a Porto win was 1-2 with a probability of 8.64%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (7.83%) and 0-2 (5.99%). The likeliest Benfica win was 2-1 (8.15%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.3%). The actual scoreline of 0-1 was predicted with a 7.8% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Porto would win this match.

Result
Benfica	Draw	Porto
35.91%	24.41%	39.68%

Both teams to score 59.8%

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

57.02%

42.98%

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

34.62%

65.38%

Benfica Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

76.37%

23.63%

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

42.28%

57.72%

Porto Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

78.3%

21.69%

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

45.15%

54.85%

Score Analysis

Benfica 35.91%

Porto 39.68%

Draw 24.41%

Benfica	Draw	Porto
2-1 @ 8.15% 1-0 @ 7.4% 2-0 @ 5.34% 3-1 @ 3.92% 3-2 @ 3% 3-0 @ 2.57% 4-1 @ 1.41% 4-2 @ 1.08% 4-0 @ 0.93% Other @ 2.12% Total : 35.91%	1-1 @ 11.3% 2-2 @ 6.23% 0-0 @ 5.13% 3-3 @ 1.53% Other @ 0.23% Total : 24.41%	1-2 @ 8.64% 0-1 @ 7.83% 0-2 @ 5.99% 1-3 @ 4.4% 2-3 @ 3.17% 0-3 @ 3.05% 1-4 @ 1.68% 2-4 @ 1.21% 0-4 @ 1.17% Other @ 2.55% Total : 39.68%