Primeira Liga | Gameweek 14

Dec 17, 2023 at 3.30pm UK

Estadio Municipal Eng. Manuel Branco Teixeira

Chaves
1 - 3
Casa Pia

Jo (45')
Langa (29')

FT(HT: 1-2)

Clayton (20', 82'), Dias (23')
Cardoso (52')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Sunday's Primeira Liga clash between Chaves and Casa Pia, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Chaves

All competitions

Primeira Liga

Last Game: Estoril 4-0 Chaves
Sunday, December 10 at 8.30pm in Primeira Liga

Goals
for

Top scorers

Casa Pia

All competitions

Primeira Liga

Last Game: Porto 3-1 Casa Pia
Saturday, December 9 at 8.30pm in Primeira Liga

Goals
for

While Casa Pia never really looked likely to trouble Porto last week, there was enough in their performance against Portimonense to suggest that the new manager's impact could be a positive one. Chaves cannot afford to lose, though, and are pretty good on their home patch recently. This looks like a very even contest on paper, and we feel these sides will not be split at full time. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Chaves win with a probability of 43.96%. A win for Casa Pia had a probability of 30.4% and a draw had a probability of 25.6%.

The most likely scoreline for a Chaves win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.23%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.04%) and 2-0 (7.6%). The likeliest Casa Pia win was 0-1 (8.21%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.18%). The actual scoreline of 1-3 was predicted with a 2.9% likelihood.

Result
Chaves	Draw	Casa Pia
43.96% ( 0.32)	25.64% ( -0.05)	30.4% ( -0.27)

Both teams to score 53.79% (

0.04)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

49.99% (

0.11)

50.01% (

-0.11)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

28.01% (

0.09)

71.99% (

-0.09)

Chaves Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

77.32% (

0.2)

22.68% (

-0.2)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

43.68% (

0.29)

56.33% (

-0.29)

Casa Pia Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

69.57% (

-0.13)

30.43% (

0.13)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

33.37% (

-0.16)

66.63% (

0.16)

Score Analysis

Chaves 43.95%

Casa Pia 30.4%

Draw 25.64%

Chaves	Draw	Casa Pia
1-0 @ 10.23% ( 0.01) 2-1 @ 9.04% ( 0.03) 2-0 @ 7.6% ( 0.06) 3-1 @ 4.47% ( 0.04) 3-0 @ 3.76% ( 0.05) 3-2 @ 2.66% ( 0.02) 4-1 @ 1.66% ( 0.02) 4-0 @ 1.39% ( 0.03) 4-2 @ 0.99% ( 0.01) Other @ 2.16% Total : 43.95%	1-1 @ 12.18% ( -0.02) 0-0 @ 6.9% ( -0.03) 2-2 @ 5.38% ( 0) 3-3 @ 1.06% ( 0) Other @ 0.12% Total : 25.64%	0-1 @ 8.21% ( -0.06) 1-2 @ 7.25% ( -0.04) 0-2 @ 4.88% ( -0.06) 1-3 @ 2.87% ( -0.03) 2-3 @ 2.13% ( -0.01) 0-3 @ 1.94% ( -0.03) Other @ 3.12% Total : 30.4%