Primeira Liga | Gameweek 17

Jan 13, 2024 at 8.30pm UK

Estadio Antonio Coimbra da Mota

Estoril
1 - 3
Moreirense

Carlos (90')
Gomes (25'), Fernandes (83')

FT(HT: 0-2)

Aparicio (30'), Marcelo (33'), Alan (74')
Ramos (39'), Alan (45+2'), Antonisse (73')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Saturday's Primeira Liga clash between Estoril Praia and Moreirense, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Estoril Praia

All competitions

Primeira Liga

Last Game: Estoril 0-4 Porto
Tuesday, January 9 at 8.45pm in Taca de Portugal

Goals
for

Moreirense

All competitions

Last Game: Moreirense 1-4 Casa Pia
Monday, January 8 at 8.15pm in Primeira Liga

Goals
for

We said: Estoril Praia 2-1 Moreirense

After a very good first half of the season, it will be interesting to see if Moreirense are able to keep up their excellent form moving forward, and they face a stern test here against an Estoril side that are improving week on week. The Canaries have won each of their last four home league games 4-0, and while we do not expect an equally big margin of victory here, we do feel they will be able to grind out another three points. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Moreirense win with a probability of 44.19%. A win for Estoril Praia had a probability of 29.5% and a draw had a probability of 26.3%.

The most likely scoreline for a Moreirense win was 0-1 with a probability of 11.18%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.95%) and 0-2 (8%). The likeliest Estoril Praia win was 1-0 (8.74%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.5%). The actual scoreline of 1-3 was predicted with a 4.3% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Moreirense would win this match.

Result
Estoril Praia	Draw	Moreirense
29.5% ( -0.24)	26.31% ( -0.07)	44.19% ( 0.29)

Both teams to score 51.21% (

0.07)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

46.86% (

0.14)

53.14% (

-0.15)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

25.29% (

0.12)

74.71% (

-0.13)

Estoril Praia Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

67.31% (

-0.1)

32.68% (

0.09)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

30.76% (

-0.11)

69.23% (

0.1)

Moreirense Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

76.08% (

0.2)

23.92% (

-0.21)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

41.86% (

0.3)

58.13% (

-0.3)

Score Analysis

Estoril Praia 29.5%

Moreirense 44.19%

Draw 26.3%

Estoril Praia	Draw	Moreirense
1-0 @ 8.74% ( -0.07) 2-1 @ 6.99% ( -0.04) 2-0 @ 4.89% ( -0.05) 3-1 @ 2.61% ( -0.02) 3-2 @ 1.86% ( -0) 3-0 @ 1.82% ( -0.02) Other @ 2.58% Total : 29.5%	1-1 @ 12.5% ( -0.03) 0-0 @ 7.82% ( -0.05) 2-2 @ 5% ( 0.01) Other @ 0.98% Total : 26.3%	0-1 @ 11.18% 1-2 @ 8.95% ( 0.03) 0-2 @ 8% ( 0.05) 1-3 @ 4.27% ( 0.04) 0-3 @ 3.81% ( 0.05) 2-3 @ 2.39% ( 0.02) 1-4 @ 1.53% ( 0.02) 0-4 @ 1.36% ( 0.03) Other @ 2.71% Total : 44.19%