Serie A

Serie A | Gameweek 19

Dec 22, 2021 at 7.45pm UK

Stadio Carlo Castellani

Empoli
2 - 4
AC Milan

Bajrami (18'), Pinamonti (84' pen.)
Romagnoli (62')

FT(HT: 1-2)

Kessie (12', 42'), Florenzi (63'), Hernandez (69')
Tonali (39'), Bennacer (80')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Wednesday's Serie A clash between Empoli and AC Milan, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Milan are limping to the finish line in 2021, having started out with dreams of Scudetto glory last January - subsequently dashed by their bitterest rivals - and they could now be taking a similar road heading into the new year. A lack of attacking thrust has been apparent in recent weeks, and Empoli are more than capable of taking advantage of defensive uncertainty since the devastating injury to Simon Kjaer. Therefore, a point will have to satisfy the visitors before they take stock during the brief winter break. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a AC Milan win with a probability of 48.25%. A win for Empoli had a probability of 29.67% and a draw had a probability of 22.1%.

The most likely scoreline for an AC Milan win was 1-2 with a probability of 9.12%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (6.42%) and 0-2 (6.18%). The likeliest Empoli win was 2-1 (6.99%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (9.48%). The actual scoreline of 2-4 was predicted with a 2.1% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that AC Milan would win this match.

Result
Empoli	Draw	AC Milan
29.67%	22.08%	48.25%

Both teams to score 65.88%

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

66.03%

33.97%

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

44.17%

55.83%

Empoli Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

77.13%

22.88%

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

43.38%

56.62%

AC Milan Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

85.42%

14.58%

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

57.34%

42.66%

Score Analysis

Empoli 29.67%

AC Milan 48.25%

Draw 22.08%

Empoli	Draw	AC Milan
2-1 @ 6.99% 1-0 @ 4.92% 2-0 @ 3.63% 3-1 @ 3.44% 3-2 @ 3.31% 3-0 @ 1.79% 4-1 @ 1.27% 4-2 @ 1.22% Other @ 3.12% Total : 29.67%	1-1 @ 9.48% 2-2 @ 6.73% 0-0 @ 3.34% 3-3 @ 2.12% Other @ 0.42% Total : 22.08%	1-2 @ 9.12% 0-1 @ 6.42% 0-2 @ 6.18% 1-3 @ 5.85% 2-3 @ 4.32% 0-3 @ 3.97% 1-4 @ 2.82% 2-4 @ 2.08% 0-4 @ 1.91% 1-5 @ 1.09% 3-4 @ 1.02% Other @ 3.47% Total : 48.25%