Taca da Liga | Group Stage

Dec 23, 2023 at 6pm UK

Estadio Joao Cardoso

Tondela
1 - 2
Sporting Lisbon

Tavares (76')
Alves (11'), Luan (16'), Mezenga (54'), Ba (85')

FT(HT: 0-2)

Braganca (17'), Paulinho (32')
Neto (45')

Preview

Data Analysis

Lineups

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Saturday's Taca da Liga clash between Tondela and Sporting Lisbon, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Tondela

All competitions

Taca da Liga

Last Game: Torreense 1-1 Tondela (2-4 pen.)
Sunday, November 26 at 5pm in Taca de Portugal

Sporting Lisbon

All competitions

Taca da Liga

Last Game: Sporting Lisbon 2-0 Porto
Monday, December 18 at 8.15pm in Primeira Liga

Goals
for

Top scorers

We said: Tondela 1-3 Sporting Lisbon

Sporting are heavily fancied to get through to the semi-final of this competition and will be aware of the importance of keeping their momentum going heading into the New Year. We expect a whole-hearted effort from the hosts here but feel that they will be bowing out of the competition at the final whistle of this match. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Sporting Lisbon win with a probability of 56.2%. A draw had a probability of 23% and a win for Tondela had a probability of 20.82%.

The most likely scoreline for a Sporting Lisbon win was 0-1 with a probability of 10.83%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (9.86%) and 0-2 (9.8%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.9%), while for a Tondela win it was 1-0 (6.03%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with a 9.9% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Sporting Lisbon would win this match.

Result
Tondela	Draw	Sporting Lisbon
20.82% ( 0.77)	22.98% ( 0.61)	56.2% ( -1.37)

Both teams to score 53.05% (

-0.76)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

53.42% (

-1.6)

46.58% (

1.61)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

31.15% (

-1.52)

68.85% (

1.53)

Tondela Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

63.45% (

-0.13)

36.55% (

0.14)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

26.66% (

-0.14)

73.34% (

0.14)

Sporting Lisbon Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

83.62% (

-1.02)

16.38% (

1.03)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

53.98% (

-1.88)

46.02% (

1.89)

Score Analysis

Tondela 20.82%

Sporting Lisbon 56.2%

Draw 22.98%

Tondela	Draw	Sporting Lisbon
1-0 @ 6.03% ( 0.38) 2-1 @ 5.49% ( 0.14) 2-0 @ 3.03% ( 0.18) 3-1 @ 1.84% ( 0.04) 3-2 @ 1.67% ( -0.02) 3-0 @ 1.02% ( 0.06) Other @ 1.75% Total : 20.82%	1-1 @ 10.9% ( 0.32) 0-0 @ 5.99% ( 0.4) 2-2 @ 4.96% ( -0.05) 3-3 @ 1% ( -0.05) Other @ 0.12% Total : 22.98%	0-1 @ 10.83% ( 0.36) 1-2 @ 9.86% ( -0.05) 0-2 @ 9.8% ( -0.02) 1-3 @ 5.95% ( -0.25) 0-3 @ 5.91% ( -0.22) 2-3 @ 2.99% ( -0.14) 1-4 @ 2.69% ( -0.21) 0-4 @ 2.67% ( -0.2) 2-4 @ 1.35% ( -0.11) 1-5 @ 0.97% ( -0.11) 0-5 @ 0.97% ( -0.11) Other @ 2.21% Total : 56.2%