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La Liga | Gameweek 13
Nov 12, 2023 at 8pm UK
Estadio Civitas Metropolitano
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Atletico
3 - 1
Villarreal

Witsel (45+1'), Griezmann (80'), Lino (85')
FT(HT: 1-1)
Moreno (20')
Capoue (45+2'), Akhomach (77')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Sunday's La Liga clash between Atletico Madrid and Villarreal, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Atletico Madrid

All competitions
La Liga
Last Game: Atletico 6-0 Celtic
Tuesday, November 7 at 8pm in Champions League

Villarreal

All competitions
La Liga
Last Game: Maccabi Haifa 1-2 Villarreal
Thursday, November 9 at 5.45pm in Europa League

We said: Atletico Madrid 2-0 Villarreal

 Villarreal have shown improvement of late, but they are well below the team that impressed for long stages of last season, and we are finding it tough to predict them to pick up a positive result here. Atletico will be desperate to return to winning ways in the league, and Simeone's side should have enough quality to secure all three points this weekend. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Atletico Madrid win with a probability of 50.19%. A win for Villarreal had a probability of 26.53% and a draw had a probability of 23.3%.

The most likely scoreline for an Atletico Madrid win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.6%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (8.73%) and 2-0 (7.77%). The likeliest Villarreal win was 1-2 (6.66%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.78%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 5.7% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Atletico Madrid would win this match.

Result
Atletico MadridDrawVillarreal
50.19% (0.45800000000001 0.46) 23.28% (0.165 0.16) 26.53% (-0.621 -0.62)
Both teams to score 58.95% (-1.146 -1.15)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
58.01% (-1.266 -1.27)41.99% (1.269 1.27)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
35.6% (-1.284 -1.28)64.4% (1.287 1.29)
Atletico Madrid Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
83.13% (-0.303 -0.3)16.86% (0.305 0.31)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
53.12% (-0.543 -0.54)46.88% (0.545 0.55)
Villarreal Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
70.9% (-1.116 -1.12)29.1% (1.119 1.12)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
34.98% (-1.402 -1.4)65.02% (1.405 1.41)
Score Analysis
    Atletico Madrid 50.19%
    Villarreal 26.53%
    Draw 23.27%
Atletico MadridDrawVillarreal
2-1 @ 9.6% (0.055999999999999 0.06)
1-0 @ 8.73% (0.404 0.4)
2-0 @ 7.77% (0.283 0.28)
3-1 @ 5.69% (-0.025 -0.03)
3-0 @ 4.61% (0.122 0.12)
3-2 @ 3.52% (-0.127 -0.13)
4-1 @ 2.53% (-0.037 -0.04)
4-0 @ 2.05% (0.035 0.04)
4-2 @ 1.56% (-0.074 -0.07)
5-1 @ 0.9% (-0.023 -0.02)
Other @ 3.21%
Total : 50.19%
1-1 @ 10.78% (0.17 0.17)
2-2 @ 5.92% (-0.153 -0.15)
0-0 @ 4.91% (0.274 0.27)
3-3 @ 1.45% (-0.101 -0.1)
Other @ 0.22%
Total : 23.27%
1-2 @ 6.66% (-0.103 -0.1)
0-1 @ 6.06% (0.157 0.16)
0-2 @ 3.74% (-0.02 -0.02)
1-3 @ 2.74% (-0.131 -0.13)
2-3 @ 2.44% (-0.142 -0.14)
0-3 @ 1.54% (-0.057 -0.06)
Other @ 3.36%
Total : 26.53%

How you voted: Atletico vs Villarreal

Atletico Madrid
88.5%
Draw
7.7%
Villarreal
3.8%
52
Head to Head
Jun 4, 2023 5.30pm
Gameweek 38
Villarreal
2-2
Atletico
Jackson (9'), Pascual (90+2')
Moreno (36'), Capoue (39'), Baena (75')
Correa (18', 56')
Barrios (68'), Correa (76')
Witsel (70')
> Preview
Aug 21, 2022 6.30pm
Gameweek 2
Atletico
0-2
Villarreal

Felix (48'), Gimenez (90+1')
Molina (90+4')
Pino (73'), Moreno (90+7')
Parejo (90+3'), Baena (90+4'), Moreno (90+9')
> Preview
Jan 9, 2022 8pm
Gameweek 20
Villarreal
2-2
Atletico
Torres (29'), Moreno (58')
Correa (10'), Kondogbia (67')
Kondogbia (71')
Kondogbia (90+2')
> Preview
Aug 29, 2021 9pm
Gameweek 3
Atletico
2-2
Villarreal
Suarez (56'), Mandi (90+4' og.)
Simeone (16'), Correa (28'), Lemar (45'), Suarez (59'), De Paul (85')
Trigueros (52'), Danjuma (74')
Moreno (61'), Rulli (85')
> Preview
Feb 28, 2021 8pm
Gameweek 25
Villarreal
0-2
Atletico

Costa (32'), Albiol (51')
Pedraza (25' og.), Felix (69')
Felipe (35'), Lemar (45+5'), Niguez (47')
> Preview
rhs 2.0
Today's games header
> View full version> Yesterday's results
Tables header RHS
TeamPWDLFAGDPTS
CReal Madrid36296183226193
2Barcelona35237572432976
3GironaGirona36236775453075
4Atletico MadridAtletico36234967392873
5Athletic Bilbao361711858372162
6Real BetisBetis35141384641555
7Real Sociedad351412948371154
8Villarreal36149136060051
9Valencia35139133739-248
10Getafe361013134151-1043
11AlavesAlaves36119163445-1142
12Sevilla361011154750-341
13Osasuna36118174054-1441
14Rayo Vallecano36814142944-1538
15Celta Vigo36910174254-1237
16Las PalmasLas Palmas35107183044-1437
17Mallorca36715142941-1236
18CadizCadiz36614162549-2432
RGranada3649233770-3321
RAlmeria35211223570-3517
> La Liga Full Table


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