Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Real Madrid win with a probability of 55.72%. A draw had a probability of 22.7% and a win for Athletic Bilbao had a probability of 21.54%.
The most likely scoreline for a Real Madrid win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.14%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.88%) and 2-0 (9.34%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.72%), while for an Athletic Bilbao win it was 0-1 (5.83%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with a 10.7% likelihood.
Result | ||
Real Madrid | Draw | Athletic Bilbao |
55.72% ( 2.6) | 22.74% ( -1) | 21.54% ( -1.59) |
Both teams to score 54.91% ( 1.16) |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
55.38% ( 2.56) | 44.62% ( -2.56) |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
33.01% ( 2.43) | 66.99% ( -2.42) |
Real Madrid Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
84.14% ( 1.85) | 15.86% ( -1.85) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
54.94% ( 3.3) | 45.06% ( -3.3) |
Athletic Bilbao Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
65.26% ( -0.05) | 34.74% ( 0.06) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
28.53% ( -0.06) | 71.47% ( 0.06) |
Score Analysis |
Real Madrid | Draw | Athletic Bilbao |
1-0 @ 10.14% ( -0.49) 2-1 @ 9.88% ( 0.13) 2-0 @ 9.34% ( 0.14) 3-1 @ 6.06% ( 0.44) 3-0 @ 5.73% ( 0.42) 3-2 @ 3.21% ( 0.23) 4-1 @ 2.79% ( 0.36) 4-0 @ 2.64% ( 0.34) 4-2 @ 1.48% ( 0.19) 5-1 @ 1.03% ( 0.19) 5-0 @ 0.97% ( 0.18) Other @ 2.45% Total : 55.72% | 1-1 @ 10.72% ( -0.53) 0-0 @ 5.51% ( -0.63) 2-2 @ 5.22% ( 0.06) 3-3 @ 1.13% ( 0.08) Other @ 0.15% Total : 22.73% | 0-1 @ 5.83% ( -0.68) 1-2 @ 5.67% ( -0.29) 0-2 @ 3.08% ( -0.36) 1-3 @ 2% ( -0.11) 2-3 @ 1.84% ( 0.02) 0-3 @ 1.09% ( -0.13) Other @ 2.05% Total : 21.54% |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
C | Real Madrid | 36 | 29 | 6 | 1 | 83 | 22 | 61 | 93 |
2 | Barcelona | 35 | 23 | 7 | 5 | 72 | 43 | 29 | 76 |
3 | GironaGirona | 36 | 23 | 6 | 7 | 75 | 45 | 30 | 75 |
4 | Atletico MadridAtletico | 36 | 23 | 4 | 9 | 67 | 39 | 28 | 73 |
5 | Athletic Bilbao | 36 | 17 | 11 | 8 | 58 | 37 | 21 | 62 |
6 | Real BetisBetis | 35 | 14 | 13 | 8 | 46 | 41 | 5 | 55 |
7 | Real Sociedad | 35 | 14 | 12 | 9 | 48 | 37 | 11 | 54 |
8 | Villarreal | 36 | 14 | 9 | 13 | 60 | 60 | 0 | 51 |
9 | Valencia | 35 | 13 | 9 | 13 | 37 | 39 | -2 | 48 |
10 | Getafe | 36 | 10 | 13 | 13 | 41 | 51 | -10 | 43 |
11 | AlavesAlaves | 36 | 11 | 9 | 16 | 34 | 45 | -11 | 42 |
12 | Sevilla | 36 | 10 | 11 | 15 | 47 | 50 | -3 | 41 |
13 | Osasuna | 36 | 11 | 8 | 17 | 40 | 54 | -14 | 41 |
14 | Rayo Vallecano | 36 | 8 | 14 | 14 | 29 | 44 | -15 | 38 |
15 | Celta Vigo | 36 | 9 | 10 | 17 | 42 | 54 | -12 | 37 |
16 | Las PalmasLas Palmas | 35 | 10 | 7 | 18 | 30 | 44 | -14 | 37 |
17 | Mallorca | 36 | 7 | 15 | 14 | 29 | 41 | -12 | 36 |
18 | CadizCadiz | 36 | 6 | 14 | 16 | 25 | 49 | -24 | 32 |
R | Granada | 36 | 4 | 9 | 23 | 37 | 70 | -33 | 21 |
R | Almeria | 35 | 2 | 11 | 22 | 35 | 70 | -35 | 17 |
> La Liga Full Table |