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La Liga | Gameweek 5
Sep 16, 2023 at 3.15pm UK
Estadio de Mestalla
Atletico Madrid logo

Valencia
3 - 0
Atletico

Duro (5', 34'), Guerra (54')
Mamardashvili (56')
FT(HT: 2-0)

Hermoso (23'), Llorente (36'), Griezmann (37'), Niguez (74'), Barrios (86')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Saturday's La Liga clash between Valencia and Atletico Madrid, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Last Game: Alaves 1-0 Valencia
Saturday, September 2 at 5.30pm in La Liga

We said: Valencia 0-1 Atletico Madrid

Atletico were stunning against Rayo last time out, and while we are not predicting a similar outcome here, the capital giants should have enough quality to secure another three points against a Valencia side that have been disappointing in their last two matches. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Atletico Madrid win with a probability of 42.13%. A win for Valencia had a probability of 31.16% and a draw had a probability of 26.7%.

The most likely scoreline for an Atletico Madrid win was 0-1 with a probability of 11.12%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.7%) and 0-2 (7.63%). The likeliest Valencia win was 1-0 (9.25%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.68%). The actual scoreline of 3-0 was predicted with a 2% likelihood.

Result
ValenciaDrawAtletico Madrid
31.16% (-0.0090000000000003 -0.01) 26.71% (-0.0030000000000001 -0) 42.13% (0.015999999999998 0.02)
Both teams to score 50.76% (0.012999999999998 0.01)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
45.91% (0.016999999999996 0.02)54.09% (-0.013999999999996 -0.01)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
24.49% (0.012999999999998 0.01)75.52% (-0.01100000000001 -0.01)
Valencia Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
68.02% (0.0030000000000001 0)31.98%
Over 1.5Under 1.5
31.56%68.44% (0.0030000000000001 0)
Atletico Madrid Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
74.62% (0.016999999999996 0.02)25.38% (-0.013999999999999 -0.01)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
39.82% (0.022999999999996 0.02)60.19% (-0.018999999999998 -0.02)
Score Analysis
    Valencia 31.16%
    Atletico Madrid 42.12%
    Draw 26.71%
ValenciaDrawAtletico Madrid
1-0 @ 9.25% (-0.0050000000000008 -0.01)
2-1 @ 7.23% (-0.0010000000000003 -0)
2-0 @ 5.28% (-0.0029999999999992 -0)
3-1 @ 2.75%
3-0 @ 2.01% (-0.00099999999999989 -0)
3-2 @ 1.89% (0.0010000000000001 0)
Other @ 2.76%
Total : 31.16%
1-1 @ 12.68% (-0.0099999999999998 -0.01)
0-0 @ 8.12% (-0.0039999999999996 -0)
2-2 @ 4.96% (0.0019999999999998 0)
Other @ 0.95%
Total : 26.71%
0-1 @ 11.12% (-0.010000000000002 -0.01)
1-2 @ 8.7% (0.0030000000000001 0)
0-2 @ 7.63% (0.0019999999999998 0)
1-3 @ 3.98% (0.0030000000000001 0)
0-3 @ 3.49% (0.0020000000000002 0)
2-3 @ 2.27% (0.00099999999999989 0)
1-4 @ 1.36% (0.002 0)
0-4 @ 1.2% (0.0010000000000001 0)
Other @ 2.38%
Total : 42.12%

How you voted: Valencia vs Atletico

Valencia
8.5%
Draw
6.4%
Atletico Madrid
85.1%
47
Head to Head
Mar 18, 2023 8pm
Gameweek 26
Atletico
3-0
Valencia
Griezmann (23'), Carrasco (49'), Lemar (67')
Aug 29, 2022 9pm
Gameweek 3
Valencia
0-1
Atletico

Maranhao (18'), Gattuso (26'), Correia (42'), Comert (76'), Perez (83')
Griezmann (66')
Niguez (14'), Simeone (26'), Mandava (27'), Felix (55')
Jan 22, 2022 8pm
Gameweek 22
Atletico
3-2
Valencia
Cunha (64'), Correa (90+1'), Hermoso (90+3')
Koke (27'), Hermoso (37'), Suarez (82'), Herrera (84'), Gimenez (90+3')
Musah (25'), Duro (44')
Correia (14'), Foulquier (37'), Musah (43'), Guillamon (61'), Lato (65'), Domenech (83')
Nov 7, 2021 3.15pm
Gameweek 13
Valencia
3-3
Atletico
Savic (50' og.), Duro (90+2', 90+6')
Guillamon (76'), Musah (90+4')
Suarez (35'), Griezmann (58'), Vrsaljko (62')
Carrasco (90'), Griezmann (90+5')
Jan 24, 2021 8pm
Gameweek 20
Atletico
3-1
Valencia
Felix (23'), Suarez (54'), Correa (72')
Vrsaljko (30'), Savic (76')
Racic (11')
rhs 2.0
Today's games header
Tables header RHS
TeamPWDLFAGDPTS
CReal Madrid36296183226193
2Barcelona35237572432976
3GironaGirona36236775453075
4Atletico MadridAtletico36234967392873
5Athletic Bilbao361711858372162
6Real BetisBetis35141384641555
7Real Sociedad351412948371154
8Villarreal36149136060051
9Valencia35139133739-248
10Getafe361013134151-1043
11AlavesAlaves36119163445-1142
12Sevilla361011154750-341
13Osasuna36118174054-1441
14Rayo Vallecano36814142944-1538
15Celta Vigo36910174254-1237
16Las PalmasLas Palmas35107183044-1437
17Mallorca36715142941-1236
18CadizCadiz36614162549-2432
RGranada3649233770-3321
RAlmeria35211223570-3517


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