Major League Soccer

Apr 7, 2024 at 1.30am UK

Bold Stadium

Austin
4 - 3
Earthquakes

Driussi (61' pen., 90+11'), Obrian (63'), Biro (67')
Gallagher (29'), Obrian (40'), Stuver (88')

FT(HT: 0-1)

Marie (20'), Ebobisse (57'), Pellegrino (74')
Beason (10'), Gonzalez (11'), Akapo (34'), Marie (40')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Sunday's Major League Soccer clash between Austin FC and San Jose Earthquakes, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Austin FC

All competitions

Last Game: Austin 2-1 Dallas
Sunday, March 31 at 12.30am in Major League Soccer

Goals
for

San Jose Earthquakes

All competitions

Last Game: Houston 2-1 Earthquakes
Sunday, March 31 at 12.30am in Major League Soccer

Goals
for

We said: Austin FC 3-1 San Jose Earthquakes

With talisman Driussi back in the starting XI, Austin are ready to climb the Western Conference and should be confident of defeating San Jose on Saturday night. The Quakes are without two key men for the trip to Texas, and we feel that a weakened-visiting side will be unable to collect any points at Q2 Stadium. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Austin FC win with a probability of 49.96%. A win for San Jose Earthquakes had a probability of 25.48% and a draw had a probability of 24.6%.

The most likely scoreline for an Austin FC win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.62%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.55%) and 2-0 (8.7%). The likeliest San Jose Earthquakes win was 0-1 (7.12%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.66%). The actual scoreline of 4-3 was predicted with a 0.4% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Austin FC would win this match.

Result
Austin FC	Draw	San Jose Earthquakes
49.96% ( 0.49)	24.56% ( 0.01)	25.48% ( -0.5)

Both teams to score 53.68% (

-0.49)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

51.5% (

-0.42)

48.5% (

0.42)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

29.37% (

-0.38)

70.63% (

0.39)

Austin FC Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

80.57% (

0.04)

19.44% (

-0.03)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

48.73% (

0.06)

51.27% (

-0.05)

San Jose Earthquakes Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

66.63% (

-0.63)

33.38% (

0.63)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

30% (

-0.7)

70% (

0.7)

Score Analysis

Austin FC 49.96%

San Jose Earthquakes 25.48%

Draw 24.56%

Austin FC	Draw	San Jose Earthquakes
1-0 @ 10.62% ( 0.19) 2-1 @ 9.55% ( 0.02) 2-0 @ 8.7% ( 0.17) 3-1 @ 5.21% ( 0.02) 3-0 @ 4.75% ( 0.1) 3-2 @ 2.86% ( -0.04) 4-1 @ 2.14% ( 0.01) 4-0 @ 1.95% ( 0.04) 4-2 @ 1.17% ( -0.02) Other @ 3% Total : 49.96%	1-1 @ 11.66% ( 0.02) 0-0 @ 6.49% ( 0.11) 2-2 @ 5.24% ( -0.08) 3-3 @ 1.05% ( -0.03) Other @ 0.13% Total : 24.56%	0-1 @ 7.12% ( 0) 1-2 @ 6.4% ( -0.1) 0-2 @ 3.91% ( -0.07) 1-3 @ 2.34% ( -0.08) 2-3 @ 1.92% ( -0.06) 0-3 @ 1.43% ( -0.05) Other @ 2.37% Total : 25.48%