Australian A-League | Gameweek 23

Apr 6, 2024 at 9.45am UK

Marvel Stadium

Victory
2 - 1
Melbourne City

Fornaroli (34' pen.), Da Silva (86')
Arzani (7'), Da Silva (40'), Machach (82'), Fornaroli (90')

FT(HT: 1-1)

Arslan (4')
Talbot (27'), Caputo (66'), Fernandez (83'), Jakolis (90+1')

Data Analysis

Lineups

Live Updates

Coverage of the Australian A-League clash between Melbourne Victory and Melbourne City.

Form, Standings, Stats

Melbourne Victory

All competitions

Last Game: Victory 2-1 Perth Glory
Sunday, March 31 at 5am in Australian A-League

Goals
for

Melbourne City

All competitions

Last Game: Central Coast 2-1 Melbourne City
Tuesday, April 2 at 9am in Australian A-League

Goals
for

Top scorers

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Melbourne Victory win with a probability of 45.18%. A win for Melbourne City had a probability of 32.74% and a draw had a probability of 22.1%.

The most likely scoreline for a Melbourne Victory win was 2-1 with a probability of 8.75%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (5.81%) and 3-1 (5.53%). The likeliest Melbourne City win was 1-2 (7.35%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (9.24%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with an 8.7% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 2-1 win for Melbourne Victory in this match.

Result
Melbourne Victory	Draw	Melbourne City
45.18% ( -0.04)	22.08% ( -0)	32.74% ( 0.04)

Both teams to score 67.65% (

0.02)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

67.64% (

0.02)

32.36% (

-0.02)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

46.02% (

0.02)

53.98% (

-0.02)

Melbourne Victory Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

84.96% (

-0.01)

15.04% (

0.01)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

56.47% (

-0.02)

43.53% (

0.02)

Melbourne City Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

79.62% (

0.03)

20.38% (

-0.03)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

47.21% (

0.05)

52.79% (

-0.05)

Score Analysis

Melbourne Victory 45.18%

Melbourne City 32.74%

Draw 22.09%

Melbourne Victory	Draw	Melbourne City
2-1 @ 8.75% ( -0) 1-0 @ 5.81% ( -0.01) 3-1 @ 5.53% ( -0) 2-0 @ 5.5% ( -0.01) 3-2 @ 4.39% 3-0 @ 3.47% ( -0.01) 4-1 @ 2.62% ( -0) 4-2 @ 2.08% ( -0) 4-0 @ 1.65% ( -0) 4-3 @ 1.1% 5-1 @ 0.99% ( -0) Other @ 3.29% Total : 45.18%	1-1 @ 9.24% ( -0) 2-2 @ 6.96% ( 0) 0-0 @ 3.07% ( -0) 3-3 @ 2.33% ( 0) Other @ 0.5% Total : 22.09%	1-2 @ 7.35% ( 0) 0-1 @ 4.88% 1-3 @ 3.9% ( 0.01) 0-2 @ 3.88% ( 0) 2-3 @ 3.69% ( 0) 0-3 @ 2.06% ( 0) 1-4 @ 1.55% ( 0) 2-4 @ 1.47% ( 0) 3-4 @ 0.93% ( 0) Other @ 3.06% Total : 32.74%