Argentine Primera Division | Gameweek 8
Mar 20, 2023 at 9.30pm UK
Estadio Marcelo Alberto Bielsa
Eduardo Recalde (77')
Mosquera (50'),
Perez (74'), Eduardo Recalde (78')
FT (HT: 0-0)
We said: Newell's Old Boys 0-1 San Lorenzo
The last eight matches between these sides have been decided by a goal or fewer, and given how strong they both are defensively, we expect another cagey affair on Monday.
We believe the visitors have the edge because they have created more scoring opportunities and are finding the back of the net with a lot more consistency than Old Boys.
Read more.
Data Analysis Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Newell's Old Boys win with a probability of 39.26% . A draw had a probability of 32.3% and a win for San Lorenzo had a probability of 28.45% .
The most likely scoreline for a Newell's Old Boys win was 1-0 with a probability of 16.25% . The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (8.26%) and 2-1 (6.75%) . The likeliest drawn scoreline was 0-0 (15.98%) , while for a San Lorenzo win it was 0-1 (13.05%) . The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 16.3% likelihood . Our data analysis correctly predicted a 1-0 win for Newell's Old Boys in this match.
Result Newell's Old Boys Draw San Lorenzo 39.26% ( -0.59) 32.28% ( 0.19) 28.45% ( 0.39)
Both teams to score 35.62% ( -0.26)
27.83% ( -0.37) 72.17% ( 0.37)
11.41% ( -0.23) 88.59% ( 0.23)
63.81% ( -0.59) 36.18% ( 0.59)
Over 1.5 Under 1.5 27.03% ( -0.6) 72.97% ( 0.6)
55.81% ( 0.11) 44.18% ( -0.11)
Over 1.5 Under 1.5 19.72% ( 0.09) 80.27% ( -0.09)
Newell's Old Boys 39.26%
San Lorenzo 28.44%
Draw 32.27%
Newell's Old Boys Draw San Lorenzo 1-0 @ 16.25% ( -0.03) 2-0 @ 8.26% ( -0.15) 2-1 @ 6.75% ( -0.1) 3-0 @ 2.8% ( -0.1) 3-1 @ 2.29% ( -0.07) 3-2 @ 0.93% ( -0.03) Other @ 1.98% Total : 39.26% 0-0 @ 15.98% ( 0.22) 1-1 @ 13.27% ( 0.01) 2-2 @ 2.76% ( -0.03) Other @ 0.27% Total : 32.27% 0-1 @ 13.05% ( 0.22) 1-2 @ 5.42% ( 0.02) 0-2 @ 5.33% ( 0.11) 1-3 @ 1.48% ( 0.01) 0-3 @ 1.45% ( 0.03) Other @ 1.71% Total : 28.44%
How you voted: Newell's OB vs San Lorenzo
Newell's Old Boys
Draw
San Lorenzo
35
rhs 2.0
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