Bundesliga

Bundesliga | Gameweek 23

Feb 18, 2022 at 7.30pm UK

Coface Arena

Mainz 05
3 - 2
B. Leverkusen

Caricol (57'), Boetius (84'), Ingvartsen (88')
Caricol (66'), Ingvartsen (90+5')

FT(HT: 0-1)

Schick (35'), Alario (74')
Adli (31'), Demirbay (56')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Friday's Bundesliga clash between Mainz 05 and Bayer Leverkusen, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

We said: Mainz 05 1-3 Bayer Leverkusen

Whilst Mainz have been very impressive this season, and appear to have rediscovered some form in February, a rampant Bayer side will surely prove too much for them. The visitors do not have the strongest defence in the league so we can see Mainz getting on the scoreboard, but it will likely be two or three for Leverkusen. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Bayer Leverkusen win with a probability of 38.62%. A win for Mainz 05 had a probability of 36.45% and a draw had a probability of 24.9%.

The most likely scoreline for a Bayer Leverkusen win was 1-2 with a probability of 8.52%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (8.28%) and 0-2 (6.04%). The likeliest Mainz 05 win was 2-1 (8.23%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.67%). The actual scoreline of 3-2 was predicted with a 2.8% likelihood.

Result
Mainz 05	Draw	Bayer Leverkusen
36.45%	24.92%	38.62%

Both teams to score 58%

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

54.67%

45.33%

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

32.33%

67.67%

Mainz 05 Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

75.58%

24.41%

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

41.16%

58.83%

Bayer Leverkusen Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

76.74%

23.26%

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

42.81%

57.18%

Score Analysis

Mainz 05 36.45%

Bayer Leverkusen 38.62%

Draw 24.92%

Mainz 05	Draw	Bayer Leverkusen
2-1 @ 8.23% 1-0 @ 8.01% 2-0 @ 5.65% 3-1 @ 3.87% 3-2 @ 2.82% 3-0 @ 2.65% 4-1 @ 1.36% 4-2 @ 1% 4-0 @ 0.94% Other @ 1.93% Total : 36.45%	1-1 @ 11.67% 2-2 @ 6% 0-0 @ 5.68% 3-3 @ 1.37% Other @ 0.19% Total : 24.92%	1-2 @ 8.52% 0-1 @ 8.28% 0-2 @ 6.04% 1-3 @ 4.14% 0-3 @ 2.94% 2-3 @ 2.92% 1-4 @ 1.51% 0-4 @ 1.07% 2-4 @ 1.06% Other @ 2.15% Total : 38.62%