Europa League

Europa League | Third Qualifying Round | 2nd Leg

Aug 17, 2023 at 5pm UK

Bolt Arena

HJK Helsinki
1 - 2
Qarabag

(Qarabag FK win 4-2 on aggregate)

Hostikka (10')
Kouassivi-Benissan (14'), Keskinen (45+6'), Mahammadaliyev (75')
Kouassivi-Benissan (16')

FT(HT: 1-1)

Bayramov (45+3' pen.), Benzia (55')
Mahammadaliyev (83'), Romao (85')

Preview

Data Analysis

Lineups

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Thursday's Europa League clash between HJK Helsinki and Qarabag FK, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

HJK Helsinki

All competitions

Europa League

Last Game: Qarabag 2-1 HJK Helsinki
Thursday, August 10 at 5pm in Europa League

Goals
for

Qarabag FK

All competitions

Europa League

Last Game: Qarabag 2-1 HJK Helsinki
Thursday, August 10 at 5pm in Europa League

	Team	Goals scored	Avg per game	Top scorer
1	HJK Helsinki	31	1.63	Radulovic
2	Oulu	30	1.58	Coffey
3	KuPS	27	1.42	Nissila
4	Inter Turku	26	1.44	Smith
5	SJK	26	1.37	Moreno
6	VPS	24	1.26	Godly Michael
7	Haka	22	1.16	Lescano
8	Honka	18	0.95	Bauque
9	Mariehamn	18	0.95	Ngueukam
10	KTP	17	0.89	Furtado
11	Lahti	16	0.89	Alves
12	Ilves	15	0.79	Pennanen

We said: HJK Helsinki 1-2 Qarabag FK (Qarabag FK to win 4-2 on aggregate)

HJK Helsinki have no choice but to throw everything at Qarabag as they attempt to turn the tie around, but the hosts' attacking approach will likely leave them exposed at the back. With that in mind, we expect Qarabag to absorb a fair amount of pressure early on before picking their moments to put the contest out of HJK's reach. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Qarabag FK win with a probability of 37.35%. A win for HJK Helsinki had a probability of 35.35% and a draw had a probability of 27.3%.

The most likely scoreline for a Qarabag FK win was 0-1 with a probability of 10.74%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.07%) and 0-2 (6.69%). The likeliest HJK Helsinki win was 1-0 (10.38%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.94%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with an 8.1% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted a 1-2 win for Qarabag FK in this match and our data analysis correctly predicted the win for Qarabag FK.

Result
HJK Helsinki	Draw	Qarabag FK
35.35% ( -0.89)	27.31% ( -0.34)	37.35% ( 1.23)

Both teams to score 49.9% (

1.01)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

44.37% (

1.28)

55.63% (

-1.28)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

23.21% (

1.03)

76.79% (

-1.03)

HJK Helsinki Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

70.03% (

0.08)

29.97% (

-0.08)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

33.92% (

0.09)

66.08% (

-0.09)

Qarabag FK Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

71.25% (

1.37)

28.75% (

-1.37)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

35.41% (

1.68)

64.59% (

-1.68)

Score Analysis

HJK Helsinki 35.34%

Qarabag FK 37.35%

Draw 27.31%

HJK Helsinki	Draw	Qarabag FK
1-0 @ 10.38% ( -0.5) 2-1 @ 7.8% ( -0.05) 2-0 @ 6.26% ( -0.29) 3-1 @ 3.13% ( -0.01) 3-0 @ 2.51% ( -0.11) 3-2 @ 1.95% ( 0.06) 4-1 @ 0.94% ( -0) Other @ 2.37% Total : 35.34%	1-1 @ 12.94% ( -0.11) 0-0 @ 8.62% ( -0.43) 2-2 @ 4.86% ( 0.15) Other @ 0.89% Total : 27.31%	0-1 @ 10.74% ( -0.12) 1-2 @ 8.07% ( 0.23) 0-2 @ 6.69% ( 0.18) 1-3 @ 3.35% ( 0.22) 0-3 @ 2.78% ( 0.18) 2-3 @ 2.02% ( 0.14) 1-4 @ 1.05% ( 0.11) Other @ 2.65% Total : 37.35%