Serie A

Serie A | Gameweek 19

Jan 7, 2024 at 11.30am UK

Stadio Carlo Castellani

Empoli
0 - 3
AC Milan

Marin (81')

FT(HT: 0-2)

Loftus-Cheek (11'), Giroud (31' pen.), Traore (88')
Calabria (41'), Jimenez (54')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Sunday's Serie A clash between Empoli and AC Milan, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Empoli

All competitions

Last Game: Cagliari 0-0 Empoli
Saturday, December 30 at 2pm in Serie A

Goals
for

Top scorers

AC Milan

All competitions

Serie A

Last Game: AC Milan 4-1 Cagliari
Tuesday, January 2 at 8pm in Coppa Italia

Goals
for

Top scorers

Everything points to a Milan win at the Castellani, where they have never been beaten in Serie A. With Empoli consistently coming up short in the final third, the Rossoneri should stride to victory and keep within striking distance of both Inter and Juve. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a AC Milan win with a probability of 51.84%. A draw had a probability of 24.3% and a win for Empoli had a probability of 23.83%.

The most likely scoreline for an AC Milan win was 0-1 with a probability of 11.03%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (9.64%) and 0-2 (9.2%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.56%), while for a Empoli win it was 1-0 (6.94%). The actual scoreline of 0-3 was predicted with a 5.1% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that AC Milan would win this match.

Result
Empoli	Draw	AC Milan
23.83% ( 0.1)	24.33% ( 0.37)	51.84% ( -0.48)

Both teams to score 52.68% (

-1.06)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

51.01% (

-1.46)

48.98% (

1.45)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

28.92% (

-1.33)

71.07% (

1.33)

Empoli Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

64.94% (

-0.71)

35.06% (

0.71)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

28.19% (

-0.75)

71.8% (

0.75)

AC Milan Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

81.12% (

-0.74)

18.88% (

0.73)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

49.65% (

-1.24)

50.35% (

1.24)

Score Analysis

Empoli 23.83%

AC Milan 51.84%

Draw 24.33%

Empoli	Draw	AC Milan
1-0 @ 6.94% ( 0.28) 2-1 @ 6.06% ( -0.01) 2-0 @ 3.64% ( 0.08) 3-1 @ 2.12% ( -0.04) 3-2 @ 1.77% ( -0.08) 3-0 @ 1.27% ( 0) Other @ 2.04% Total : 23.83%	1-1 @ 11.56% ( 0.2) 0-0 @ 6.62% ( 0.39) 2-2 @ 5.05% ( -0.13) 3-3 @ 0.98% ( -0.07) Other @ 0.11% Total : 24.33%	0-1 @ 11.03% ( 0.4) 1-2 @ 9.64% ( -0.06) 0-2 @ 9.2% ( 0.12) 1-3 @ 5.36% ( -0.16) 0-3 @ 5.11% ( -0.05) 2-3 @ 2.81% ( -0.14) 1-4 @ 2.23% ( -0.12) 0-4 @ 2.13% ( -0.07) 2-4 @ 1.17% ( -0.09) Other @ 3.15% Total : 51.84%