Ligue 1

Ligue 1 | Gameweek 9

Oct 2, 2022 at 2pm UK

Stadium Municipal

Toulouse
4 - 2
Montpellier

Spierings (18'), Aboukhlal (24'), Chaibi (31'), Dejaegere (48')
Desler (15'), Sylla (43'), Spierings (60'), Genreau (73')
Desler (60')

FT(HT: 3-1)

Cozza (7'), Wahi (68')
Ferri (16'), Chotard (33'), Savanier (53'), Wahi (67')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Sunday's Ligue 1 clash between Toulouse and Montpellier HSC, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Toulouse

All competitions

Last Game: Lille 2-1 Toulouse
Saturday, September 17 at 8pm in Ligue 1

Goals
for

Top scorers

Montpellier HSC

All competitions

Last Game: Montpellier 2-1 Strasbourg
Saturday, September 17 at 4pm in Ligue 1

Goals
for

Top scorers

We said: Toulouse 2-2 Montpellier HSC

Montpellier games have tended to be high-scoring affairs this season, so we expect them to carry on in this vein, but Toulouse should have enough about them to get a point at home. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Toulouse win with a probability of 63.61%. A draw had a probability of 20.5% and a win for Montpellier HSC had a probability of 15.84%.

The most likely scoreline for a Toulouse win was 2-0 with a probability of 10.97%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (10.79%) and 2-1 (9.9%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (9.74%), while for a Montpellier HSC win it was 0-1 (4.79%). The actual scoreline of 4-2 was predicted with a 1.5% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Toulouse would win this match.

Result
Toulouse	Draw	Montpellier HSC
63.61% ( 0.34)	20.54% ( 0.04)	15.84% ( -0.38)

Both teams to score 51.66% (

-1.02)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

56.22% (

-0.92)

43.78% (

0.92)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

33.83% (

-0.9)

66.17% (

0.91)

Toulouse Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

86.91% (

-0.18)

13.09% (

0.19)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

60.29% (

-0.38)

39.71% (

0.38)

Montpellier HSC Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

59.44% (

-1.04)

40.56% (

1.05)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

22.84% (

-0.96)

77.16% (

0.96)

Score Analysis

Toulouse 63.6%

Montpellier HSC 15.84%

Draw 20.55%

Toulouse	Draw	Montpellier HSC
2-0 @ 10.97% ( 0.28) 1-0 @ 10.79% ( 0.35) 2-1 @ 9.9% ( -0.02) 3-0 @ 7.44% ( 0.14) 3-1 @ 6.71% ( -0.06) 4-0 @ 3.78% ( 0.05) 4-1 @ 3.41% ( -0.06) 3-2 @ 3.03% ( -0.12) 4-2 @ 1.54% ( -0.07) 5-0 @ 1.54% ( 0.01) 5-1 @ 1.39% ( -0.03) Other @ 3.1% Total : 63.6%	1-1 @ 9.74% ( 0.05) 0-0 @ 5.31% ( 0.21) 2-2 @ 4.47% ( -0.14) 3-3 @ 0.91% ( -0.06) Other @ 0.11% Total : 20.55%	0-1 @ 4.79% ( 0.06) 1-2 @ 4.4% ( -0.11) 0-2 @ 2.16% ( -0.04) 2-3 @ 1.34% ( -0.08) 1-3 @ 1.32% ( -0.07) Other @ 1.83% Total : 15.84%