Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Los Angeles Galaxy win with a probability of 55.24%. A draw had a probability of 22.6% and a win for San Jose Earthquakes had a probability of 22.13%.
The most likely scoreline for a Los Angeles Galaxy win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.86%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (9.71%) and 2-0 (9.02%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.61%), while for a San Jose Earthquakes win it was 1-2 (5.81%). The actual scoreline of 4-3 was predicted with a 0.6% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Los Angeles Galaxy would win this match.
Result | ||
Los Angeles Galaxy | Draw | San Jose Earthquakes |
55.24% ( 0.48) | 22.62% ( 0.23) | 22.13% ( -0.71) |
Both teams to score 56.11% ( -1.76) |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
56.58% ( -1.87) | 43.42% ( 1.87) |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
34.18% ( -1.87) | 65.81% ( 1.87) |
Los Angeles Galaxy Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
84.4% ( -0.49) | 15.6% ( 0.49) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
55.42% ( -0.92) | 44.58% ( 0.92) |
San Jose Earthquakes Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
66.49% ( -1.68) | 33.51% ( 1.68) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
29.85% ( -1.88) | 70.15% ( 1.88) |
Score Analysis |
Los Angeles Galaxy | Draw | San Jose Earthquakes |
2-1 @ 9.86% ( 0.03) 1-0 @ 9.71% ( 0.62) 2-0 @ 9.02% ( 0.43) 3-1 @ 6.11% ( -0.09) 3-0 @ 5.59% ( 0.18) 3-2 @ 3.34% ( -0.21) 4-1 @ 2.84% ( -0.09) 4-0 @ 2.6% ( 0.04) 4-2 @ 1.55% ( -0.12) 5-1 @ 1.06% ( -0.05) 5-0 @ 0.97% ( -0) Other @ 2.6% Total : 55.24% | 1-1 @ 10.61% ( 0.21) 2-2 @ 5.39% ( -0.23) 0-0 @ 5.23% ( 0.42) 3-3 @ 1.22% ( -0.14) Other @ 0.17% Total : 22.62% | 1-2 @ 5.81% ( -0.15) 0-1 @ 5.72% ( 0.21) 0-2 @ 3.12% ( -0.03) 1-3 @ 2.12% ( -0.16) 2-3 @ 1.97% ( -0.18) 0-3 @ 1.14% ( -0.06) Other @ 2.27% Total : 22.13% |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
1 | Inter MiamiInter Miami | 18 | 10 | 5 | 3 | 42 | 27 | 15 | 35 |
2 | FC CincinnatiCincinnati | 16 | 10 | 3 | 3 | 23 | 16 | 7 | 33 |
3 | New York Red BullsNY Red Bulls | 16 | 8 | 5 | 3 | 29 | 22 | 7 | 29 |
4 | New York City FCNY City | 16 | 9 | 2 | 5 | 24 | 17 | 7 | 29 |
5 | Charlotte FCCharlotte FC | 17 | 7 | 4 | 6 | 18 | 18 | 0 | 25 |
6 | Columbus Crew | 14 | 6 | 6 | 2 | 21 | 13 | 8 | 24 |
7 | Toronto | 17 | 7 | 3 | 7 | 26 | 26 | 0 | 24 |
8 | Philadelphia UnionPhiladelphia | 16 | 4 | 8 | 4 | 27 | 23 | 4 | 20 |
9 | Nashville SCNashville | 16 | 4 | 7 | 5 | 20 | 22 | -2 | 19 |
10 | DC United | 17 | 4 | 7 | 6 | 25 | 31 | -6 | 19 |
11 | Orlando City | 16 | 4 | 5 | 7 | 16 | 24 | -8 | 17 |
12 | CF MontrealMontreal | 16 | 4 | 5 | 7 | 23 | 35 | -12 | 17 |
13 | Atlanta UnitedAtlanta | 16 | 4 | 4 | 8 | 22 | 21 | 1 | 16 |
14 | Chicago Fire | 17 | 3 | 6 | 8 | 17 | 29 | -12 | 15 |
15 | New England RevolutionNew England | 14 | 3 | 1 | 10 | 11 | 27 | -16 | 10 |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
1 | Real Salt LakeSalt Lake | 17 | 9 | 6 | 2 | 36 | 19 | 17 | 33 |
2 | Los Angeles FCLos Angeles | 16 | 9 | 3 | 4 | 28 | 19 | 9 | 30 |
3 | Minnesota UnitedMinnesota Utd | 15 | 8 | 4 | 3 | 27 | 20 | 7 | 28 |
4 | Los Angeles GalaxyLA Galaxy | 17 | 7 | 7 | 3 | 31 | 25 | 6 | 28 |
5 | Vancouver WhitecapsVancouver | 16 | 7 | 4 | 5 | 24 | 19 | 5 | 25 |
6 | Austin FCAustin | 17 | 6 | 5 | 6 | 21 | 25 | -4 | 23 |
7 | Houston DynamoHouston | 16 | 6 | 4 | 6 | 18 | 18 | 0 | 22 |
8 | Colorado RapidsColorado | 17 | 6 | 4 | 7 | 29 | 31 | -2 | 22 |
9 | Portland TimbersPortland | 17 | 5 | 5 | 7 | 32 | 32 | 0 | 20 |
10 | Seattle SoundersSeattle | 16 | 4 | 6 | 6 | 19 | 19 | 0 | 18 |
11 | St Louis City | 15 | 3 | 8 | 4 | 23 | 25 | -2 | 17 |
12 | Dallas | 15 | 3 | 4 | 8 | 17 | 24 | -7 | 13 |
13 | Sporting Kansas CityKansas | 16 | 2 | 5 | 9 | 24 | 31 | -7 | 11 |
14 | San Jose EarthquakesEarthquakes | 16 | 3 | 2 | 11 | 24 | 39 | -15 | 11 |