Primeira Liga | Gameweek 24

Mar 11, 2023 at 3.30pm UK

Estádio Municipal Eng. Manuel Branco Teixeira

Chaves
2 - 0
Portimonense

Juninho (31'), Abass (73')
Queiros (51'), Moura (80'), Cruz (83'), Guimaraes (90+4')
Moura (88')

FT(HT: 1-0)

Ventura (20')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Saturday's Primeira Liga clash between Chaves and Portimonense, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Chaves

All competitions

Last Game: Chaves 1-3 Porto
Saturday, March 4 at 8.30pm in Primeira Liga

Goals
for

Top scorers

Portimonense

All competitions

Last Game: Portimonense 0-1 Sporting Lisbon
Saturday, March 4 at 6pm in Primeira Liga

Goals
for

We said: Chaves 2-1 Portimonense

Chaves and Portimonense head into the weekend level on points in the league table and we expect a cagey affair in this one. The Alvinegros have struggled for results away from home this season and we are tipping Campelos's side to claim a slender victory in front of their home fans. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Chaves win with a probability of 43.5%. A win for Portimonense had a probability of 30.23% and a draw had a probability of 26.3%.

The most likely scoreline for a Chaves win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.93%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.9%) and 2-0 (7.79%). The likeliest Portimonense win was 0-1 (8.77%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.49%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with a 7.8% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Chaves would win this match.

Result
Chaves	Draw	Portimonense
43.5% ( -0.66)	26.27% ( 0.13)	30.23% ( 0.54)

Both teams to score 51.72% (

-0.11)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

47.33% (

-0.27)

52.67% (

0.27)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

25.69% (

-0.23)

74.31% (

0.23)

Chaves Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

75.95% (

-0.44)

24.05% (

0.44)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

41.67% (

-0.63)

58.33% (

0.64)

Portimonense Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

68.1% (

0.25)

31.9% (

-0.25)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

31.65% (

0.28)

68.35% (

-0.28)

Score Analysis

Chaves 43.49%

Portimonense 30.23%

Draw 26.27%

Chaves	Draw	Portimonense
1-0 @ 10.93% ( -0.02) 2-1 @ 8.9% ( -0.07) 2-0 @ 7.79% ( -0.12) 3-1 @ 4.23% ( -0.09) 3-0 @ 3.7% ( -0.11) 3-2 @ 2.42% ( -0.04) 4-1 @ 1.51% ( -0.05) 4-0 @ 1.32% ( -0.05) Other @ 2.71% Total : 43.49%	1-1 @ 12.49% ( 0.06) 0-0 @ 7.67% ( 0.08) 2-2 @ 5.08% ( -0.01) 3-3 @ 0.92% ( -0.01) Other @ 0.1% Total : 26.27%	0-1 @ 8.77% ( 0.15) 1-2 @ 7.14% ( 0.08) 0-2 @ 5.01% ( 0.12) 1-3 @ 2.72% ( 0.05) 2-3 @ 1.94% ( 0.01) 0-3 @ 1.91% ( 0.06) Other @ 2.76% Total : 30.23%