Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Estrela Amadora win with a probability of 47.84%. A win for Casa Pia had a probability of 26.49% and a draw had a probability of 25.7%.
The most likely scoreline for a Estrela Amadora win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.49%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.28%) and 2-0 (8.74%). The likeliest Casa Pia win was 0-1 (8.03%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.2%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 4.7% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Estrela Amadora would win this match.
Result | ||
Estrela Amadora | Draw | Casa Pia |
47.84% ( -0.03) | 25.67% ( 0.01) | 26.49% ( 0.01) |
Both teams to score 51.12% ( -0.03) |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
47.72% ( -0.05) | 52.28% ( 0.04) |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
26.02% ( -0.04) | 73.98% ( 0.03) |
Estrela Amadora Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
78.14% ( -0.03) | 21.86% ( 0.03) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
44.9% ( -0.05) | 55.09% ( 0.04) |
Casa Pia Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
65.42% ( -0.02) | 34.57% ( 0.01) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
28.7% ( -0.02) | 71.29% ( 0.01) |
Score Analysis |
Estrela Amadora | Draw | Casa Pia |
1-0 @ 11.49% ( 0.01) 2-1 @ 9.28% ( -0) 2-0 @ 8.74% ( -0) 3-1 @ 4.7% ( -0.01) 3-0 @ 4.43% ( -0) 3-2 @ 2.5% ( -0) 4-1 @ 1.79% ( -0) 4-0 @ 1.68% ( -0) 4-2 @ 0.95% ( -0) Other @ 2.28% Total : 47.84% | 1-1 @ 12.2% ( 0.01) 0-0 @ 7.56% ( 0.01) 2-2 @ 4.93% ( -0) Other @ 0.98% Total : 25.66% | 0-1 @ 8.03% ( 0.01) 1-2 @ 6.48% ( 0) 0-2 @ 4.26% ( 0) 1-3 @ 2.3% 2-3 @ 1.75% ( -0) 0-3 @ 1.51% ( 0) Other @ 2.17% Total : 26.49% |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
C | Sporting Lisbon | 33 | 28 | 3 | 2 | 93 | 29 | 64 | 87 |
2 | Benfica | 33 | 25 | 4 | 4 | 76 | 27 | 49 | 79 |
3 | Porto | 33 | 21 | 6 | 6 | 62 | 27 | 35 | 69 |
4 | Braga | 33 | 21 | 5 | 7 | 71 | 49 | 22 | 68 |
5 | Vitoria de GuimaraesGuimaraes | 33 | 18 | 6 | 9 | 49 | 37 | 12 | 60 |
6 | MoreirenseMoreirense | 33 | 15 | 7 | 11 | 34 | 34 | 0 | 52 |
7 | AroucaArouca | 33 | 13 | 7 | 13 | 53 | 47 | 6 | 46 |
8 | FamalicaoFamalicao | 33 | 10 | 12 | 11 | 36 | 39 | -3 | 42 |
9 | SC FarenseFarense | 33 | 10 | 7 | 16 | 45 | 48 | -3 | 37 |
10 | Rio AveRio Ave | 33 | 6 | 18 | 9 | 37 | 42 | -5 | 36 |
11 | Gil Vicente | 33 | 9 | 9 | 15 | 42 | 51 | -9 | 36 |
12 | Casa Pia | 33 | 9 | 8 | 16 | 36 | 49 | -13 | 35 |
13 | Estoril PraiaEstoril | 33 | 9 | 6 | 18 | 48 | 56 | -8 | 33 |
14 | BoavistaBoavista | 33 | 7 | 10 | 16 | 37 | 60 | -23 | 31 |
15 | Estrela Amadora | 33 | 6 | 12 | 15 | 32 | 53 | -21 | 30 |
16 | PortimonensePortimonense | 33 | 7 | 8 | 18 | 36 | 71 | -35 | 29 |
R | Vizela | 33 | 5 | 10 | 18 | 34 | 64 | -30 | 25 |
R | ChavesChaves | 33 | 5 | 8 | 20 | 31 | 69 | -38 | 23 |
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