Primeira Liga | Gameweek 20

Feb 4, 2024 at 6pm UK

Estadio Antonio Coimbra da Mota

Estoril
1 - 0
Estrela Amadora

Fernandes (57')
Marques (38'), Marques (71'), Ndiaye (75')

FT(HT: 0-0)

Sa (85'), Bucca (79')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Sunday's Primeira Liga clash between Estoril Praia and Estrela Amadora, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Estoril Praia

All competitions

Primeira Liga

Last Game: Rio Ave 1-1 Estoril
Wednesday, January 31 at 6.45pm in Primeira Liga

Goals
for

Estrela Amadora

All competitions

Last Game: Estrela Amadora 1-4 Benfica
Monday, January 29 at 6.45pm in Primeira Liga

Goals
for

We said: Estoril Praia 2-1 Estrela Amadora

Given the stakes of the game, we anticipate a thrilling contest between the two sides who will be looking to avoid falling into the relegation dogfight. While they are evenly matched on paper, home advantage gives Estoril a slight edge and we fancy the them to claim all three points, albeit by the odd goal. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Estoril Praia win with a probability of 50.91%. A win for Estrela Amadora had a probability of 25.81% and a draw had a probability of 23.3%.

The most likely scoreline for a Estoril Praia win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.65%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (8.99%) and 2-0 (8.01%). The likeliest Estrela Amadora win was 1-2 (6.53%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.83%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with an 9% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Estoril Praia would win this match.

Result
Estoril Praia	Draw	Estrela Amadora
50.91% ( -0.1)	23.28% ( 0.04)	25.81% ( 0.07)

Both teams to score 58.23% (

-0.07)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

57.38% (

-0.12)

42.62% (

0.12)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

34.97% (

-0.12)

65.03% (

0.12)

Estoril Praia Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

83.16% (

-0.08)

16.84% (

0.09)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

53.17% (

-0.15)

46.83% (

0.15)

Estrela Amadora Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

70.02% (

-0.01)

29.98% (

0.01)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

33.91% (

-0.01)

66.09% (

0.02)

Score Analysis

Estoril Praia 50.91%

Estrela Amadora 25.81%

Draw 23.28%

Estoril Praia	Draw	Estrela Amadora
2-1 @ 9.65% ( -0) 1-0 @ 8.99% ( 0.02) 2-0 @ 8.01% ( -0) 3-1 @ 5.73% ( -0.02) 3-0 @ 4.76% ( -0.01) 3-2 @ 3.45% ( -0.01) 4-1 @ 2.55% ( -0.02) 4-0 @ 2.12% ( -0.01) 4-2 @ 1.54% ( -0.01) 5-1 @ 0.91% ( -0.01) Other @ 3.2% Total : 50.91%	1-1 @ 10.83% ( 0.03) 2-2 @ 5.81% ( -0) 0-0 @ 5.05% ( 0.03) 3-3 @ 1.39% ( -0.01) Other @ 0.2% Total : 23.28%	1-2 @ 6.53% ( 0.01) 0-1 @ 6.08% ( 0.03) 0-2 @ 3.66% ( 0.02) 1-3 @ 2.62% ( 0) 2-3 @ 2.33% ( -0) 0-3 @ 1.47% ( 0.01) Other @ 3.12% Total : 25.81%