Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Sporting Lisbon win with a probability of 86.84%. A draw had a probability of 8.5% and a win for Portimonense had a probability of 4.65%.
The most likely scoreline for a Sporting Lisbon win was 3-0 with a probability of 9.44%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 4-0 (8.44%) and 2-0 (7.92%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (3.61%), while for a Portimonense win it was 1-2 (1.47%). The actual scoreline of 3-0 was predicted with a 9.4% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted a 3-0 win for Sporting Lisbon in this match.
Result | ||
Sporting Lisbon | Draw | Portimonense |
86.84% ( 0.11) | 8.51% ( -0.02) | 4.65% ( -0.1) |
Both teams to score 54.16% ( -0.81) |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
81.36% ( -0.44) | 18.63% ( 0.43) |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
63.88% ( -0.64) | 36.11% ( 0.63) |
Sporting Lisbon Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
97.19% ( -0.06) | 2.8% ( 0.05) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
87.18% ( -0.19) | 12.81% ( 0.18) |
Portimonense Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
55.72% ( -0.81) | 44.27% ( 0.8) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
19.65% ( -0.66) | 80.35% ( 0.66) |
Score Analysis |
Sporting Lisbon | Draw | Portimonense |
3-0 @ 9.44% ( 0.2) 4-0 @ 8.44% ( 0.14) 2-0 @ 7.92% ( 0.21) 3-1 @ 7.7% ( -0.01) 4-1 @ 6.88% ( -0.04) 2-1 @ 6.46% ( 0.03) 5-0 @ 6.04% ( 0.07) 5-1 @ 4.92% ( -0.06) 1-0 @ 4.43% ( 0.14) 6-0 @ 3.6% ( 0.02) 3-2 @ 3.14% ( -0.07) 6-1 @ 2.93% ( -0.05) 4-2 @ 2.8% ( -0.08) 5-2 @ 2% ( -0.07) 7-0 @ 1.84% ( 0) 7-1 @ 1.5% ( -0.03) 6-2 @ 1.19% ( -0.05) Other @ 5.61% Total : 86.84% | 1-1 @ 3.61% ( 0.03) 2-2 @ 2.63% ( -0.05) 0-0 @ 1.24% ( 0.04) Other @ 1.03% Total : 8.51% | 1-2 @ 1.47% ( -0.02) 0-1 @ 1.01% ( 0.01) Other @ 2.17% Total : 4.65% |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
C | Sporting Lisbon | 33 | 28 | 3 | 2 | 93 | 29 | 64 | 87 |
2 | Benfica | 33 | 25 | 4 | 4 | 76 | 27 | 49 | 79 |
3 | Porto | 33 | 21 | 6 | 6 | 62 | 27 | 35 | 69 |
4 | Braga | 33 | 21 | 5 | 7 | 71 | 49 | 22 | 68 |
5 | Vitoria de GuimaraesGuimaraes | 33 | 18 | 6 | 9 | 49 | 37 | 12 | 60 |
6 | MoreirenseMoreirense | 33 | 15 | 7 | 11 | 34 | 34 | 0 | 52 |
7 | AroucaArouca | 33 | 13 | 7 | 13 | 53 | 47 | 6 | 46 |
8 | FamalicaoFamalicao | 33 | 10 | 12 | 11 | 36 | 39 | -3 | 42 |
9 | SC FarenseFarense | 33 | 10 | 7 | 16 | 45 | 48 | -3 | 37 |
10 | Rio AveRio Ave | 33 | 6 | 18 | 9 | 37 | 42 | -5 | 36 |
11 | Gil Vicente | 33 | 9 | 9 | 15 | 42 | 51 | -9 | 36 |
12 | Casa Pia | 33 | 9 | 8 | 16 | 36 | 49 | -13 | 35 |
13 | Estoril PraiaEstoril | 33 | 9 | 6 | 18 | 48 | 56 | -8 | 33 |
14 | BoavistaBoavista | 33 | 7 | 10 | 16 | 37 | 60 | -23 | 31 |
15 | Estrela Amadora | 33 | 6 | 12 | 15 | 32 | 53 | -21 | 30 |
16 | PortimonensePortimonense | 33 | 7 | 8 | 18 | 36 | 71 | -35 | 29 |
R | Vizela | 33 | 5 | 10 | 18 | 34 | 64 | -30 | 25 |
R | ChavesChaves | 33 | 5 | 8 | 20 | 31 | 69 | -38 | 23 |
> Primeira Liga Full Table |