Another thrilling game could materialise when Qarabag host Rakow Czestochowa in the second qualifying round of the Champions League at the Azersun Arena on Wednesday.
The home side trail after losing the reverse fixture 3-2 in Poland, but the deficit is not insurmountable.
Match preview
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Despite not being one of the draw's must-see games, Qarabag played their part in last week's rip-roaring game with Rakow in Czestochowa.
It looked like the encounter was living up to the humdrum predictions at half time, but five second-half goals changed that pre-match narrative.
Redon Xhixha netted a brace to put Gurban Gurbanov's team level at 2-2 after trailing to an Elvin Cafarguliyev own goal, and Fabian Piasecki strike; however, a late concession means the Horsemen are behind in the tie.
The Azerbaijani football club tend to make it to the third round in qualifying, further adding pressure to last term's Azerbaijan Premier League champions, who could exit the competition in the second phase of the qualifiers.
With the 2017-18 campaign the only time they made the Champions League group stage, success against Rakow takes the Horsemen closer to their ambition of a second appearance in Europe's premier club competition.
The away side were beneficiaries of Sonny Kittel's goal in second-half stoppage time to win the game, but the task is far from over.
Rakow are participating in the Champions League qualifying rounds for the first time in the club's history, an upshot of winning their maiden PKO Bank Polski Ekstraklasa title after consecutive seasons as runners-up.
They were drawn with Qarabag after eliminating Estonian side Flora Tallinn in the first qualifying round and are 90 minutes (excluding extra time) away from making the third phase.
Rakow's title defence is still in its infancy, with a 3-0 triumph over Jagiellonia Białystok indicating the Polish champions are starting the campaign strongly under new boss Dawid Szwarga.
With the weekend's game with Korona postponed, the away side have had a week to prepare for Wednesday's second leg, but it remains to be seen if the early-season breather helps.
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Team News
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Abbas Huseynov has not played for Qarabag since sustaining the injury that has kept him out since last November, and the right-back is sidelined for Wednesday's game.
Having been forced off with an injury after scoring at the wrong end, Cafarquliyev could miss the midweek clash.
With Qarabag's domestic season not commencing until the weekend, Gurbanov's lineup could be similar to the one utilised in Poland.
Raskow's are just one league game into their domestic campaign, and an unchanged team could be sent out by Szwarga in Baku.
The club's long-term absentees — Adrian Gryszkiewicz (torn meniscus), Ivi Lopez (ligament rupture) and Kamil Pestka (knee) — are sidelined.
Qarabag FK possible starting lineup:
Mahammadaliyev; Medvedev, Mustafazada, Medina, Bayramov; Romao, Jankovic; Andrade, Benzia, Zoubir; Xhixha
Rakow Czestochowa possible starting lineup:
Kovacevic; Racovitan, Arsenic, Svarnas; Tudor, Lederman, Papanikolaou, Carlos; Kocherhin, Zwolinski, Cebula
We say: Qarabag FK 1-1 Rakow Czestochowa (Rakow Czestochowa advance 4-3 on aggregate)
Qarabag have lost one competitive home game since Olympique Marseille's 3-0 win in February 2022 — a 2-1 loss against Sumqayit two months ago — underscoring their menace in front of their fans.
While they are unlikely to lose on Wednesday, Rakow Czestochowa could escape with a draw, which is the result they need to advance to the third qualifying round.
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Qarabag FK win with a probability of 43.32%. A win for Rakow Czestochowa had a probability of 30.83% and a draw had a probability of 25.8%.
The most likely scoreline for a Qarabag FK win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.34%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.96%) and 2-0 (7.54%). The likeliest Rakow Czestochowa win was 0-1 (8.43%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.28%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with a 12.3% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted a 1-1 draw for this match.
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