Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a AC Milan win with a probability of 61.66%. A draw had a probability of 23.2% and a win for Lecce had a probability of 15.17%.
The most likely scoreline for an AC Milan win was 1-0 with a probability of 14.85%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (12.89%) and 2-1 (9.32%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.73%), while for a Lecce win it was 0-1 (6.19%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with a 12.9% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that AC Milan would win this match.
Result | ||
AC Milan | Draw | Lecce |
61.66% ( -0.06) | 23.17% ( 0.03) | 15.17% ( 0.03) |
Both teams to score 42.38% ( -0) |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
44.54% ( -0.05) | 55.46% ( 0.05) |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
23.35% ( -0.04) | 76.65% ( 0.04) |
AC Milan Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
82.37% ( -0.04) | 17.63% ( 0.04) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
51.77% ( -0.07) | 48.23% ( 0.07) |
Lecce Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
51.45% ( 0.02) | 48.55% ( -0.02) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
16.37% ( 0.02) | 83.63% ( -0.02) |
Score Analysis |
AC Milan | Draw | Lecce |
1-0 @ 14.85% ( 0.01) 2-0 @ 12.89% ( -0.01) 2-1 @ 9.32% ( -0) 3-0 @ 7.46% ( -0.02) 3-1 @ 5.39% ( -0.01) 4-0 @ 3.24% ( -0.01) 4-1 @ 2.34% ( -0.01) 3-2 @ 1.95% ( -0) 5-0 @ 1.12% ( -0) Other @ 3.12% Total : 61.66% | 1-1 @ 10.73% ( 0.01) 0-0 @ 8.56% ( 0.01) 2-2 @ 3.37% ( 0) Other @ 0.51% Total : 23.16% | 0-1 @ 6.19% ( 0.01) 1-2 @ 3.88% ( 0.01) 0-2 @ 2.24% ( 0.01) 1-3 @ 0.93% ( 0) Other @ 1.93% Total : 15.17% |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
C | Inter Milan | 38 | 29 | 7 | 2 | 89 | 22 | 67 | 94 |
2 | AC Milan | 38 | 22 | 9 | 7 | 76 | 49 | 27 | 75 |
3 | Juventus | 38 | 19 | 14 | 5 | 54 | 31 | 23 | 71 |
4 | Atalanta BCAtalanta | 37 | 21 | 6 | 10 | 70 | 39 | 31 | 69 |
5 | Bologna | 38 | 18 | 14 | 6 | 54 | 32 | 22 | 68 |
6 | Roma | 38 | 18 | 9 | 11 | 65 | 46 | 19 | 63 |
7 | Lazio | 38 | 18 | 7 | 13 | 49 | 39 | 10 | 61 |
8 | Fiorentina | 37 | 16 | 9 | 12 | 58 | 44 | 14 | 57 |
9 | Torino | 38 | 13 | 14 | 11 | 36 | 36 | 0 | 53 |
10 | Napoli | 38 | 13 | 14 | 11 | 55 | 48 | 7 | 53 |
11 | Genoa | 38 | 12 | 13 | 13 | 45 | 45 | 0 | 49 |
12 | Monza | 38 | 11 | 12 | 15 | 39 | 51 | -12 | 45 |
13 | Hellas VeronaHellas Verona | 38 | 9 | 11 | 18 | 38 | 51 | -13 | 38 |
14 | Lecce | 38 | 8 | 14 | 16 | 32 | 54 | -22 | 38 |
15 | Udinese | 38 | 6 | 19 | 13 | 37 | 53 | -16 | 37 |
16 | CagliariCagliari | 38 | 8 | 12 | 18 | 42 | 68 | -26 | 36 |
17 | Empoli | 38 | 9 | 9 | 20 | 29 | 54 | -25 | 36 |
R | FrosinoneFrosinone | 38 | 8 | 11 | 19 | 44 | 69 | -25 | 35 |
R | SassuoloSassuolo | 38 | 7 | 9 | 22 | 43 | 75 | -32 | 30 |
R | Salernitana | 38 | 2 | 11 | 25 | 32 | 81 | -49 | 17 |
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