Serie A

Serie A | Gameweek 17

Jan 8, 2023 at 7.45pm UK

Stadio Giuseppe Meazza

AC Milan
2 - 2
Roma

Kalulu (30'), Pobega (77')
Leao (26'), Bennacer (62'), Tomori (68'), Tonali (72'), Pioli (73')

FT(HT: 1-0)

Ibanez (87'), Abraham (90+3')
Celik (9'), Zalewski (30'), Zaniolo (45'), Ibanez (82'), Matic (90+1'), Abraham (90+6')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Sunday's Serie A clash between AC Milan and Roma, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

AC Milan

All competitions

Serie A

Last Game: Salernitana 1-2 AC Milan
Wednesday, January 4 at 11.30am in Serie A

Goals
for

Top scorers

Roma

All competitions

Serie A

Last Game: Roma 1-0 Bologna
Wednesday, January 4 at 3.30pm in Serie A

Goals
for

Top scorers

Following Napoli's first slip-up, Milan will sense blood - and they now face a Roma side renowned for flunking against their top-six rivals. In an intriguing clash of styles - the Rossoneri have scored the most open play goals in Serie A this season (28); the Giallorossi boast the best percentage from set-pieces (42%) - it is the home side that should come out on top. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a AC Milan win with a probability of 49.97%. A draw had a probability of 25.9% and a win for Roma had a probability of 24.16%.

The most likely scoreline for an AC Milan win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.63%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (9.58%) and 2-1 (9.28%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.23%), while for a Roma win it was 0-1 (8.07%). The actual scoreline of 2-2 was predicted with a 4.5% likelihood.

Result
AC Milan	Draw	Roma
49.97% ( 0.44)	25.87% ( -0.08)	24.16% ( -0.36)

Both teams to score 48.43% (

-0.12)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

45.24% (

0.03)

54.76% (

-0.03)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

23.93% (

0.02)

76.07% (

-0.02)

AC Milan Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

78.04% (

0.2)

21.95% (

-0.21)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

44.76% (

0.31)

55.24% (

-0.31)

Roma Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

62.05% (

-0.31)

37.94% (

0.31)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

25.28% (

-0.31)

74.71% (

0.3)

Score Analysis

AC Milan 49.97%

Roma 24.16%

Draw 25.86%

AC Milan	Draw	Roma
1-0 @ 12.63% ( 0.07) 2-0 @ 9.58% ( 0.11) 2-1 @ 9.28% ( 0.03) 3-0 @ 4.84% ( 0.08) 3-1 @ 4.69% ( 0.04) 3-2 @ 2.27% ( 0) 4-0 @ 1.84% ( 0.04) 4-1 @ 1.78% ( 0.03) Other @ 3.07% Total : 49.97%	1-1 @ 12.23% ( -0.05) 0-0 @ 8.33% ( -0.01) 2-2 @ 4.5% ( -0.03) Other @ 0.81% Total : 25.86%	0-1 @ 8.07% ( -0.08) 1-2 @ 5.93% ( -0.07) 0-2 @ 3.91% ( -0.07) 1-3 @ 1.92% ( -0.04) 2-3 @ 1.45% ( -0.02) 0-3 @ 1.26% ( -0.03) Other @ 1.62% Total : 24.16%