Serie A

Serie A | Gameweek 5

Sep 3, 2022 at 7.45pm UK

Stadio Olimpico

Lazio
1 - 2
Napoli

Zaccagni (4')
Milinkovic-Savic (67'), Anderson (70'), Cataldi (70'), Sarri (90'), Marusic (90+4')

FT(HT: 1-1)

Min-jae (38'), Kvaratskhelia (61')
Spalletti (81')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Saturday's Serie A clash between Lazio and Napoli, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Lazio

Last Six:

Last Game: Sampdoria 1-1 Lazio
Wednesday, August 31 at 5.30pm in Serie A

Current League Standings		P	GD	PTS
6	AC Milan	4	4	8
7	Lazio	4	3	8
8	Torino	4	0	7

Napoli

Last Six:

Last Game: Napoli 1-1 Lecce
Wednesday, August 31 at 7.45pm in Serie A

Current League Standings		P	GD	PTS
3	Inter Milan	4	4	9
4	Napoli	4	7	8
5	Juventus	4	5	8

Though Sarri lost both games against his former employer last season, by an aggregate score of 6-1, he can get the better of Spalletti on this occasion, as Napoli have been more hit-and-miss since a summer of comings and goings in the transfer market; Lazio are the more settled side and should edge a close encounter in the capital. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Napoli win with a probability of 46.51%. A win for Lazio had a probability of 27.75% and a draw had a probability of 25.7%.

The most likely scoreline for a Napoli win was 0-1 with a probability of 11.13%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (9.2%) and 0-2 (8.37%). The likeliest Lazio win was 1-0 (8.14%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.24%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with a 9.2% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Napoli would win this match.

Result
Lazio	Draw	Napoli
27.75% ( 0.3)	25.74% ( 0.6)	46.51% ( -0.91)

Both teams to score 51.87% (

-1.66)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

48.23% (

-2.28)

51.77% (

2.27)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

26.46% (

-2.01)

73.53% (

2.01)

Lazio Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

66.7% (

-0.96)

33.29% (

0.96)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

30.09% (

-1.08)

69.91% (

1.07)

Napoli Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

77.75% (

-1.35)

22.24% (

1.34)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

44.32% (

-2.06)

55.67% (

2.06)

Score Analysis

Lazio 27.75%

Napoli 46.51%

Draw 25.74%

Lazio	Draw	Napoli
1-0 @ 8.14% ( 0.52) 2-1 @ 6.73% ( -0.01) 2-0 @ 4.48% ( 0.17) 3-1 @ 2.47% ( -0.07) 3-2 @ 1.86% ( -0.13) 3-0 @ 1.64% ( 0.02) Other @ 2.43% Total : 27.75%	1-1 @ 12.24% ( 0.3) 0-0 @ 7.41% ( 0.65) 2-2 @ 5.06% ( -0.22) 3-3 @ 0.93% ( -0.11) Other @ 0.1% Total : 25.74%	0-1 @ 11.13% ( 0.56) 1-2 @ 9.2% ( -0.15) 0-2 @ 8.37% ( 0.09) 1-3 @ 4.61% ( -0.27) 0-3 @ 4.19% ( -0.13) 2-3 @ 2.54% ( -0.22) 1-4 @ 1.73% ( -0.18) 0-4 @ 1.58% ( -0.12) 2-4 @ 0.95% ( -0.13) Other @ 2.21% Total : 46.51%