Supercoppa Italiana | Final

Jan 18, 2023 at 7pm UK

Stadio Giuseppe Meazza

AC Milan
0 - 3
Inter Milan

Hernandez (77'), Tonali (85')

FT(HT: 0-2)

Dimarco (10'), Dzeko (21'), Martinez (77')
Barella (33'), Calhanoglu (72'), Martinez (79')

Preview

Data Analysis

Lineups

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Wednesday's Supercoppa Italiana clash between AC Milan and Inter Milan, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

AC Milan

All competitions

Last Game: Lecce 2-2 AC Milan
Saturday, January 14 at 5pm in Serie A

Goals
for

Top scorers

Inter Milan

All competitions

Supercoppa Italiana

Last Game: Inter Milan 1-0 Hellas Verona
Saturday, January 14 at 7.45pm in Serie A

Goals
for

Top scorers

We said: AC Milan 1-2 Inter Milan (after extra time)

Separated only by one point in the Serie A standings, these two Italian giants fought tooth and nail for the Scudetto last term and are particularly well-matched at the moment. It could take an extra 30 minutes to decide who returns to the peninsula with silverware in tow, and Inter's in-form strikers may well have the final say. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a AC Milan win with a probability of 43.05%. A win for Inter Milan had a probability of 31.71% and a draw had a probability of 25.2%.

The most likely scoreline for an AC Milan win was 1-0 with a probability of 9.49%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9%) and 2-0 (7.15%). The likeliest Inter Milan win was 0-1 (7.92%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.94%). The actual scoreline of 0-3 was predicted with a 2.1% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted that Inter Milan would win this match.

Result
AC Milan	Draw	Inter Milan
43.05% ( -0.17)	25.24% ( 0.05)	31.71% ( 0.13)

Both teams to score 55.71% (

-0.11)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

52.2% (

-0.16)

47.79% (

0.16)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

30.02% (

-0.15)

69.98% (

0.15)

AC Milan Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

77.84% (

-0.15)

22.16% (

0.15)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

44.45% (

-0.23)

55.55% (

0.23)

Inter Milan Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

71.57% (

28.43% (

-0)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

35.81% (

64.19% (

-0)

Score Analysis

AC Milan 43.05%

Inter Milan 31.71%

Draw 25.24%

AC Milan	Draw	Inter Milan
1-0 @ 9.49% ( 0.02) 2-1 @ 9% ( -0.02) 2-0 @ 7.15% ( -0.02) 3-1 @ 4.52% ( -0.03) 3-0 @ 3.59% ( -0.02) 3-2 @ 2.84% ( -0.02) 4-1 @ 1.7% ( -0.02) 4-0 @ 1.35% ( -0.01) 4-2 @ 1.07% ( -0.01) Other @ 2.32% Total : 43.05%	1-1 @ 11.94% ( 0.03) 0-0 @ 6.3% ( 0.04) 2-2 @ 5.66% ( -0.01) 3-3 @ 1.19% ( -0.01) Other @ 0.15% Total : 25.24%	0-1 @ 7.92% ( 0.05) 1-2 @ 7.51% ( 0.02) 0-2 @ 4.98% ( 0.03) 1-3 @ 3.15% ( 0.01) 2-3 @ 2.37% ( -0.01) 0-3 @ 2.09% ( 0.02) 1-4 @ 0.99% ( 0) Other @ 2.7% Total : 31.71%