Taca da Liga | Semi-Finals

Jan 24, 2023 at 7.45pm UK

Estádio Municipal

Arouca
1 - 2
Sporting Lisbon

Dabbagh (58')
Opoku (38'), Quaresma (44'), Thiago (61'), Sylla (62'), Ruiz (88'), Simao (90+4')

FT(HT: 0-1)

Paulinho (45+7', 82')
Porro (88'), Tanlongo (90+2')

Preview

Data Analysis

Lineups

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Tuesday's Taca da Liga clash between Arouca and Sporting Lisbon, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Arouca

All competitions

Taca da Liga

Last Game: Arouca 4-0 Portimonense
Friday, January 20 at 7pm in Primeira Liga

Goals
for

Sporting Lisbon

All competitions

Taca da Liga

Last Game: Sporting Lisbon 2-1 Vizela
Friday, January 20 at 9.15pm in Primeira Liga

Goals
for

Top scorers

We said: Arouca 1-2 Sporting Lisbon

Arouca should have plenty of motivation to perform well in the club's first ever domestic cup semi-final, especially having put together a decent run of results of late. However, Sporting have become dominant in this competition in recent seasons and should have too much quality for their opponents in the end. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Sporting Lisbon win with a probability of 52.96%. A win for Arouca had a probability of 23.53% and a draw had a probability of 23.5%.

The most likely scoreline for a Sporting Lisbon win was 0-1 with a probability of 10.17%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (9.76%) and 0-2 (8.94%). The likeliest Arouca win was 1-0 (6.32%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.1%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with a 9.8% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted a 1-2 win for Sporting Lisbon in this match and our data analysis correctly predicted the win for Sporting Lisbon.

Result
Arouca	Draw	Sporting Lisbon
23.53% ( 0.03)	23.51% ( 0.01)	52.96% ( -0.04)

Both teams to score 54.98% (

-0)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

54.22% (

-0.02)

45.78% (

0.02)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

31.91% (

-0.02)

68.09% (

0.02)

Arouca Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

66.44% (

0.02)

33.56% (

-0.02)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

29.8% (

0.02)

70.2% (

-0.02)

Sporting Lisbon Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

82.75% (

-0.02)

17.25% (

0.02)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

52.44% (

-0.04)

47.56% (

0.04)

Score Analysis

Arouca 23.54%

Sporting Lisbon 52.96%

Draw 23.5%

Arouca	Draw	Sporting Lisbon
1-0 @ 6.32% ( 0.01) 2-1 @ 6.06% ( 0.01) 2-0 @ 3.45% ( 0.01) 3-1 @ 2.21% ( 0) 3-2 @ 1.94% ( 0) 3-0 @ 1.26% ( 0) Other @ 2.3% Total : 23.54%	1-1 @ 11.1% 0-0 @ 5.79% ( 0) 2-2 @ 5.33% ( 0) 3-3 @ 1.14% Other @ 0.15% Total : 23.5%	0-1 @ 10.17% 1-2 @ 9.76% ( -0) 0-2 @ 8.94% ( -0.01) 1-3 @ 5.72% ( -0) 0-3 @ 5.24% ( -0.01) 2-3 @ 3.12% ( -0) 1-4 @ 2.51% ( -0) 0-4 @ 2.3% ( -0) 2-4 @ 1.37% ( -0) Other @ 3.83% Total : 52.96%