Taca de Portugal | Semi-Finals | 1st Leg

Apr 3, 2024 at 8.15pm UK

Estadio Dom Afonso Henriques

Guimaraes
0 - 1
Porto

(Porto win 4-1 on aggregate)

Mendes (58'), Borevkovic (71'), Cesar (79')

FT(HT: 0-0)

Pepe (52')
Sanchez (45+8'), Otavio (56'), Wendell (80')

Preview

Data Analysis

Lineups

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Wednesday's Taca de Portugal clash between Vitoria de Guimaraes and Porto, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Vitoria de Guimaraes

All competitions

Taca de Portugal

Last Game: Guimaraes 1-0 Moreirense
Saturday, March 30 at 3.30pm in Primeira Liga

Goals
for

Top scorers

Porto

All competitions

Taca de Portugal

Last Game: Estoril 1-0 Porto
Saturday, March 30 at 8.30pm in Primeira Liga

Goals
for

Top scorers

We said: Vitoria de Guimaraes 1-2 Porto

This first leg encounter will likely be a tight affair with both sides looking to be cautious ahead of the return leg. Porto, the favorites, will control possession but Vitoria will aim for counter-attacks. We expect a cagey affair but Porto have enough quality to edge it. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Porto win with a probability of 43.26%. A win for Vitoria de Guimaraes had a probability of 30.76% and a draw had a probability of 26%.

The most likely scoreline for a Porto win was 0-1 with a probability of 10.5%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.93%) and 0-2 (7.59%). The likeliest Vitoria de Guimaraes win was 1-0 (8.55%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.35%). The actual scoreline of 0-1 was predicted with a 10.5% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 0-1 win for Porto in this match and our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted the win for Porto.

Result
Vitoria de Guimaraes	Draw	Porto
30.76% ( 0.07)	25.98% ( -0.35)	43.26% ( 0.29)

Both teams to score 52.87% (

1.12)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

48.71% (

1.44)

51.29% (

-1.44)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

26.88% (

1.25)

73.12% (

-1.24)

Vitoria de Guimaraes Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

69.17% (

0.78)

30.83% (

-0.78)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

32.9% (

0.91)

67.1% (

-0.91)

Porto Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

76.43% (

0.77)

23.57% (

-0.77)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

42.37% (

1.1)

57.64% (

-1.1)

Score Analysis

Vitoria de Guimaraes 30.76%

Porto 43.25%

Draw 25.98%

Vitoria de Guimaraes	Draw	Porto
1-0 @ 8.55% ( -0.31) 2-1 @ 7.27% ( 0.06) 2-0 @ 5.03% ( -0.07) 3-1 @ 2.85% ( 0.08) 3-2 @ 2.06% ( 0.11) 3-0 @ 1.97% ( 0.01) Other @ 3.03% Total : 30.76%	1-1 @ 12.35% ( -0.17) 0-0 @ 7.27% ( -0.43) 2-2 @ 5.25% ( 0.16) 3-3 @ 0.99% ( 0.07) Other @ 0.11% Total : 25.98%	0-1 @ 10.5% ( -0.37) 1-2 @ 8.93% ( 0.08) 0-2 @ 7.59% ( -0.09) 1-3 @ 4.3% ( 0.14) 0-3 @ 3.66% ( 0.04) 2-3 @ 2.53% ( 0.13) 1-4 @ 1.55% ( 0.08) 0-4 @ 1.32% ( 0.04) 2-4 @ 0.91% ( 0.07) Other @ 1.96% Total : 43.25%