Porto

3 - 1

Guimaraes

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Porto win with a probability of 64.2%. A draw had a probability of 20.5% and a win for Vitoria de Guimaraes had a probability of 15.3%.

The most likely scoreline for a Porto win was 2-0 with a probability of 11.32%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (11.18%) and 2-1 (9.87%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (9.75%), while for a Vitoria de Guimaraes win it was 0-1 (4.81%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 6.7% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Porto would win this match.