With both sides sitting in the bottom three positions after making slow starts to the qualifying campaign, this already feels like a must-win match if they are to have a genuine chance of reaching the World Cup in less than three years' time.
As such, we expect to see a more entertaining encounter than may ordinarily be expected, with Paraguay hoping to let loose having failed to score in their opening three games. We are predicting a narrow home victory, meaning Bolivia's losing streak would continue.
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Paraguay win with a probability of 70.98%. A draw had a probability of 19.4% and a win for Bolivia had a probability of 9.61%.
The most likely scoreline for a Paraguay win was 1-0 with a probability of 15.48%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (15.34%) and 3-0 (10.13%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (8.79%), while for a Bolivia win it was 0-1 (4.44%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 15.5% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 1-0 win for Paraguay in this match and our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted the win for Paraguay.
1.02) 
-0.66) 
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