EFL Cup

EFL Cup | Third Round

Sep 26, 2023 at 7.45pm UK

Vale Park

Port Vale
2 - 1
Sutton

Thomas (49'), Ojo (83')
Chislett (90+5')

FT(HT: 0-0)

Kasimu (70')
Angol (6'), Kizzi (32'), Goodliffe (56'), O'Brien (80')

Preview

Data Analysis

Lineups

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Tuesday's EFL Cup clash between Port Vale and Sutton United, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Port Vale

All competitions

EFL Cup

Last Game: Cambridge 1-1 Port Vale
Saturday, September 23 at 3pm in League One

Goals
for

Top scorers

Sutton United

All competitions

EFL Cup

Last Game: Sutton 1-1 MK Dons
Saturday, September 23 at 3pm in League Two

Goals
for

Top scorers

We said: Port Vale 2-1 Sutton United

Although Sutton have knocked out two teams in League One to book their place in third round, we think that they will be unable to repeat that feat on Tuesday. We believe that the Valiants will prove too strong for a Sutton side who have failed to win any of their last five competitive games. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Port Vale win with a probability of 53.98%. A draw had a probability of 24.2% and a win for Sutton United had a probability of 21.84%.

The most likely scoreline for a Port Vale win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.77%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (9.92%) and 2-1 (9.68%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.49%), while for a Sutton United win it was 0-1 (6.83%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 9.7% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted a 2-1 win for Port Vale in this match and our data analysis correctly predicted the win for Port Vale.

Result
Port Vale	Draw	Sutton United
53.98% ( 0.27)	24.17% ( -0.1)	21.84% ( -0.18)

Both teams to score 50.75% (

0.05)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

49.65% (

0.18)

50.35% (

-0.19)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

27.71% (

0.16)

72.29% (

-0.17)

Port Vale Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

81.43% (

0.17)

18.57% (

-0.18)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

50.17% (

0.29)

49.83% (

-0.3)

Sutton United Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

62.32% (

-0.08)

37.68% (

0.07)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

25.54% (

-0.07)

74.45% (

0.06)

Score Analysis

Port Vale 53.98%

Sutton United 21.84%

Draw 24.17%

Port Vale	Draw	Sutton United
1-0 @ 11.77% ( -0.03) 2-0 @ 9.92% ( 0.04) 2-1 @ 9.68% ( 0.02) 3-0 @ 5.57% ( 0.05) 3-1 @ 5.43% ( 0.04) 3-2 @ 2.65% ( 0.02) 4-0 @ 2.34% ( 0.04) 4-1 @ 2.29% ( 0.03) 4-2 @ 1.12% ( 0.01) Other @ 3.21% Total : 53.98%	1-1 @ 11.49% ( -0.05) 0-0 @ 7% ( -0.05) 2-2 @ 4.72% ( -0) Other @ 0.96% Total : 24.17%	0-1 @ 6.83% ( -0.07) 1-2 @ 5.61% ( -0.03) 0-2 @ 3.33% ( -0.04) 1-3 @ 1.83% ( -0.01) 2-3 @ 1.54% ( -0) 0-3 @ 1.08% ( -0.01) Other @ 1.62% Total : 21.84%