Champions League

Champions League | Third Qualifying Round | 2nd Leg

Aug 15, 2023 at 7pm UK

Gradski stadion

Backa Topola
1 - 4
Braga

(Braga win 7-1 on aggregate)

Rakonjac (40')
Dordevic (22'), Pantovic (47')

FT(HT: 1-4)

Pizzi (8'), Bruma (12'), Djalo (16'), Elmusrati (20')

Preview

Data Analysis

Lineups

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Tuesday's Champions League clash between Backa Topola and Braga, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Backa Topola

Last Game: Braga 3-0 Backa Topola
Tuesday, August 8 at 8pm in Champions League

Braga

All competitions

Champions League

Last Game: Braga 1-2 Famalicao
Friday, August 11 at 8.15pm in Primeira Liga

Goals
for

Top scorers

We said: Backa Topola 0-2 Braga (Braga win 5-0 on aggregate)

Even with a few alterations anticipated on Braga's end, the Portuguese powerhouses proved too strong for Backa Topola in the first leg, which should again be the case at the TSC Arena. The margin of victory may not be as emphatic some 1,800 miles away from home, but Jorge's rejigged side should have no problem notching another couple of goals en route to the playoff round. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Braga win with a probability of 52.34%. A win for Backa Topola had a probability of 23.97% and a draw had a probability of 23.7%.

The most likely scoreline for a Braga win was 0-1 with a probability of 10.2%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (9.73%) and 0-2 (8.86%). The likeliest Backa Topola win was 1-0 (6.45%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.19%). The actual scoreline of 1-4 was predicted with a 2.4% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Braga would win this match.

Result
Backa Topola	Draw	Braga
23.97% ( 0.05)	23.69% ( 0.02)	52.34% ( -0.07)

Both teams to score 54.91% (

-0.01)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

53.88% (

-0.04)

46.11% (

0.04)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

31.58% (

-0.04)

68.42% (

0.04)

Backa Topola Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

66.64% (

0.03)

33.36% (

-0.02)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

30.02% (

0.03)

69.98% (

-0.02)

Braga Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

82.4% (

-0.04)

17.6% (

0.04)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

51.82% (

-0.07)

48.18% (

0.07)

Score Analysis

Backa Topola 23.97%

Braga 52.34%

Draw 23.68%

Backa Topola	Draw	Braga
1-0 @ 6.45% ( 0.01) 2-1 @ 6.15% ( 0.01) 2-0 @ 3.54% ( 0.01) 3-1 @ 2.25% ( 0) 3-2 @ 1.95% ( 0) 3-0 @ 1.3% ( 0) Other @ 2.34% Total : 23.97%	1-1 @ 11.19% ( 0.01) 0-0 @ 5.87% ( 0.01) 2-2 @ 5.34% ( 0) 3-3 @ 1.13% ( -0) Other @ 0.15% Total : 23.68%	0-1 @ 10.2% ( 0.01) 1-2 @ 9.73% ( -0) 0-2 @ 8.86% ( -0.01) 1-3 @ 5.63% ( -0.01) 0-3 @ 5.13% ( -0.01) 2-3 @ 3.09% ( -0) 1-4 @ 2.45% ( -0.01) 0-4 @ 2.23% ( -0.01) 2-4 @ 1.34% ( -0) Other @ 3.68% Total : 52.34%