DFB-Pokal | Quarter-Finals

Apr 5, 2023 at 7.45pm UK

Red Bull Arena

RB Leipzig
2 - 0
Dortmund

Werner (22'), Orban (90+8')
Raum (58'), Szoboszlai (90+5')

FT(HT: 1-0)

Ryerson (40'), Bellingham (85'), Malen (90+2'), Hummels (90+6')

Preview

Data Analysis

Lineups

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Wednesday's DFB-Pokal clash between RB Leipzig and Borussia Dortmund, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

RB Leipzig

All competitions

DFB-Pokal

Last Game: RB Leipzig 0-3 Mainz
Saturday, April 1 at 2.30pm in Bundesliga

Goals
for

Top scorers

Borussia Dortmund

All competitions

DFB-Pokal

Last Game: Bayern 4-2 Dortmund
Saturday, April 1 at 5.30pm in Bundesliga

Goals
for

Top scorers

We said: RB Leipzig 2-1 Borussia Dortmund

This has all the makings of an excellent cup tie, with both teams recognising that the DFB-Pokal represents their best chance of winning silverware this season. Dortmund could be bruised by their defeat to Bayern on Saturday, with home advantage potentially set to be a key factor in helping Leipzig remain in the hunt to retain this trophy. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a RB Leipzig win with a probability of 43.87%. A win for Borussia Dortmund had a probability of 33.43% and a draw had a probability of 22.7%.

The most likely scoreline for a RB Leipzig win was 2-1 with a probability of 8.82%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (6.36%) and 2-0 (5.71%). The likeliest Borussia Dortmund win was 1-2 (7.59%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (9.83%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with a 5.7% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that RB Leipzig would win this match.

Result
RB Leipzig	Draw	Borussia Dortmund
43.87% ( 0.04)	22.69% ( -0)	33.43% ( -0.03)

Both teams to score 65.59% (

0.01)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

64.84% (

0.01)

35.16% (

-0.01)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

42.83% (

0.01)

57.17% (

-0.01)

RB Leipzig Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

83.38% (

0.02)

16.62% (

-0.02)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

53.55% (

0.03)

46.45% (

-0.03)

Borussia Dortmund Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

78.66% (

-0.01)

21.34% (

0.02)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

45.7% (

-0.02)

54.3% (

0.02)

Score Analysis

RB Leipzig 43.87%

Borussia Dortmund 33.43%

Draw 22.7%

RB Leipzig	Draw	Borussia Dortmund
2-1 @ 8.82% ( 0) 1-0 @ 6.36% ( 0) 2-0 @ 5.71% ( 0) 3-1 @ 5.28% ( 0) 3-2 @ 4.08% ( 0) 3-0 @ 3.42% ( 0) 4-1 @ 2.37% ( 0) 4-2 @ 1.83% ( 0) 4-0 @ 1.53% ( 0) 4-3 @ 0.94% Other @ 3.54% Total : 43.87%	1-1 @ 9.83% ( -0) 2-2 @ 6.81% 0-0 @ 3.55% ( -0) 3-3 @ 2.1% ( 0) Other @ 0.41% Total : 22.7%	1-2 @ 7.59% ( -0) 0-1 @ 5.48% ( -0) 0-2 @ 4.23% ( -0.01) 1-3 @ 3.91% ( -0) 2-3 @ 3.51% ( -0) 0-3 @ 2.18% ( -0) 1-4 @ 1.51% ( -0) 2-4 @ 1.36% ( -0) Other @ 3.67% Total : 33.43%