Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Sagan Tosu win with a probability of 43.74%. A win for Gamba Osaka had a probability of 31.47% and a draw had a probability of 24.8%.

The most likely scoreline for a Sagan Tosu win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.09%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (9.06%) and 2-0 (7.06%). The likeliest Gamba Osaka win was 1-2 (7.49%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.65%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with an 11.7% likelihood.

Result
Sagan Tosu	Draw	Gamba Osaka
43.74% ( -0.17)	24.79% ( 0.01)	31.47% ( 0.16)

Both teams to score 57.15% (

0.03)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

54.13% (

0.01)

45.87% (

-0.01)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

31.82% (

0.01)

68.18% (

-0.02)

Sagan Tosu Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

78.97% (

-0.08)

21.03% (

0.07)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

46.18% (

-0.11)

53.82% (

0.11)

Gamba Osaka Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

72.36% (

0.11)

27.63% (

-0.11)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

36.83% (

0.14)

63.17% (

-0.14)

Score Analysis

Sagan Tosu 43.74%

Gamba Osaka 31.47%

Draw 24.78%

Sagan Tosu	Draw	Gamba Osaka
2-1 @ 9.09% ( -0.02) 1-0 @ 9.06% ( -0.03) 2-0 @ 7.06% ( -0.04) 3-1 @ 4.72% ( -0.02) 3-0 @ 3.67% ( -0.03) 3-2 @ 3.04% ( -0) 4-1 @ 1.84% ( -0.01) 4-0 @ 1.43% ( -0.01) 4-2 @ 1.18% ( -0) Other @ 2.64% Total : 43.74%	1-1 @ 11.65% 2-2 @ 5.84% ( 0.01) 0-0 @ 5.81% ( -0) 3-3 @ 1.3% ( 0) Other @ 0.18% Total : 24.78%	1-2 @ 7.49% ( 0.02) 0-1 @ 7.47% ( 0.02) 0-2 @ 4.81% ( 0.03) 1-3 @ 3.21% ( 0.02) 2-3 @ 2.51% ( 0.01) 0-3 @ 2.06% ( 0.02) 1-4 @ 1.03% ( 0.01) Other @ 2.89% Total : 31.47%