Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Atletico Madrid win with a probability of 57.39%. A draw had a probability of 22% and a win for Sevilla had a probability of 20.59%.
The most likely scoreline for an Atletico Madrid win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.92%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (9.71%) and 2-0 (9.33%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.32%), while for a Sevilla win it was 1-2 (5.49%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 9.7% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Atletico Madrid would win this match.
Result | ||
Atletico Madrid | Draw | Sevilla |
57.39% ( -5.29) | 22.02% ( 1.59) | 20.59% ( 3.7) |
Both teams to score 55.89% ( 1.46) |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
57.35% ( -1.38) | 42.65% ( 1.38) |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
34.95% ( -1.39) | 65.05% ( 1.39) |
Atletico Madrid Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
85.37% ( -2.04) | 14.63% ( 2.04) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
57.25% ( -4.07) | 42.75% ( 4.07) |
Sevilla Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
65.46% ( 3.2) | 34.54% ( -3.19) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
28.75% ( 3.25) | 71.25% ( -3.25) |
Score Analysis |
Atletico Madrid | Draw | Sevilla |
2-1 @ 9.92% ( -0.02) 1-0 @ 9.71% ( -0.13) 2-0 @ 9.33% ( -0.87) 3-1 @ 6.36% ( -0.51) 3-0 @ 5.98% ( -1.07) 3-2 @ 3.38% ( 0.03) 4-1 @ 3.06% ( -0.5) 4-0 @ 2.87% ( -0.78) 4-2 @ 1.62% ( -0.11) 5-1 @ 1.18% ( -0.3) 5-0 @ 1.11% ( -0.41) Other @ 2.87% Total : 57.39% | 1-1 @ 10.32% ( 0.73) 2-2 @ 5.28% ( 0.43) 0-0 @ 5.05% ( 0.3) 3-3 @ 1.2% ( 0.11) Other @ 0.17% Total : 22.01% | 1-2 @ 5.49% ( 0.81) 0-1 @ 5.37% ( 0.74) 0-2 @ 2.86% ( 0.6) 1-3 @ 1.95% ( 0.43) 2-3 @ 1.87% ( 0.3) 0-3 @ 1.01% ( 0.28) Other @ 2.05% Total : 20.59% |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
C | Real Madrid | 36 | 29 | 6 | 1 | 83 | 22 | 61 | 93 |
2 | Barcelona | 35 | 23 | 7 | 5 | 72 | 43 | 29 | 76 |
3 | GironaGirona | 36 | 23 | 6 | 7 | 75 | 45 | 30 | 75 |
4 | Atletico MadridAtletico | 36 | 23 | 4 | 9 | 67 | 39 | 28 | 73 |
5 | Athletic Bilbao | 36 | 17 | 11 | 8 | 58 | 37 | 21 | 62 |
6 | Real BetisBetis | 35 | 14 | 13 | 8 | 46 | 41 | 5 | 55 |
7 | Real Sociedad | 35 | 14 | 12 | 9 | 48 | 37 | 11 | 54 |
8 | Villarreal | 36 | 14 | 9 | 13 | 60 | 60 | 0 | 51 |
9 | Valencia | 35 | 13 | 9 | 13 | 37 | 39 | -2 | 48 |
10 | Getafe | 36 | 10 | 13 | 13 | 41 | 51 | -10 | 43 |
11 | AlavesAlaves | 36 | 11 | 9 | 16 | 34 | 45 | -11 | 42 |
12 | Sevilla | 36 | 10 | 11 | 15 | 47 | 50 | -3 | 41 |
13 | Osasuna | 36 | 11 | 8 | 17 | 40 | 54 | -14 | 41 |
14 | Rayo Vallecano | 36 | 8 | 14 | 14 | 29 | 44 | -15 | 38 |
15 | Celta Vigo | 36 | 9 | 10 | 17 | 42 | 54 | -12 | 37 |
16 | Las PalmasLas Palmas | 35 | 10 | 7 | 18 | 30 | 44 | -14 | 37 |
17 | Mallorca | 36 | 7 | 15 | 14 | 29 | 41 | -12 | 36 |
18 | CadizCadiz | 36 | 6 | 14 | 16 | 25 | 49 | -24 | 32 |
R | Granada | 36 | 4 | 9 | 23 | 37 | 70 | -33 | 21 |
R | Almeria | 35 | 2 | 11 | 22 | 35 | 70 | -35 | 17 |
> La Liga Full Table |