League One

League One | Gameweek 27

Jan 6, 2024 at 3pm UK

St James Park

Exeter
2 - 1
Carlisle

Cole (57'), Cox (77')
Harris (5'), Jules (67'), Wildschut (90'), Scott (90+8')

FT(HT: 0-0)

Butterworth (86')
Neal (64')

Preview

Data Analysis

Lineups

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Saturday's League One clash between Exeter City and Carlisle United, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Exeter City

All competitions

Last Game: Reading 3-2 Exeter
Monday, January 1 at 3pm in League One

Goals
for

Top scorers

Carlisle United

All competitions

Last Game: Carlisle 2-1 Port Vale
Monday, January 1 at 3pm in League One

Goals
for

Top scorers

We said: Exeter City 1-1 Carlisle United

In a true six-pointer at the bottom end of League One, with the chance to jump out of the bottom four on the line, we anticipate a tight encounter at St James Park and cannot quite pick a winner, with both sides keen to build on recent improvements. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Exeter City win with a probability of 41.71%. A win for Carlisle United had a probability of 31.5% and a draw had a probability of 26.8%.

The most likely scoreline for a Exeter City win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.11%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.65%) and 2-0 (7.55%). The likeliest Carlisle United win was 0-1 (9.36%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.72%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with an 8.6% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Exeter City would win this match.

Result
Exeter City	Draw	Carlisle United
41.71% ( 0.01)	26.79% ( -0)	31.5% ( -0)

Both teams to score 50.67% (

0.01)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

45.73% (

0.01)

54.27% (

-0.01)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

24.34% (

0.01)

75.66% (

-0.01)

Exeter City Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

74.32% (

0.01)

25.68% (

-0.01)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

39.41% (

0.01)

60.58% (

-0.01)

Carlisle United Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

68.17% (

31.83% (

-0)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

31.74% (

68.26% (

-0)

Score Analysis

Exeter City 41.71%

Carlisle United 31.51%

Draw 26.79%

Exeter City	Draw	Carlisle United
1-0 @ 11.11% 2-1 @ 8.65% ( 0) 2-0 @ 7.55% ( 0) 3-1 @ 3.92% ( 0) 3-0 @ 3.42% ( 0) 3-2 @ 2.24% ( 0) 4-1 @ 1.33% ( 0) 4-0 @ 1.16% ( 0) Other @ 2.32% Total : 41.71%	1-1 @ 12.72% 0-0 @ 8.17% ( -0) 2-2 @ 4.95% ( 0) Other @ 0.94% Total : 26.79%	0-1 @ 9.36% ( -0) 1-2 @ 7.28% ( -0) 0-2 @ 5.36% ( -0) 1-3 @ 2.78% 0-3 @ 2.04% 2-3 @ 1.89% ( 0) Other @ 2.8% Total : 31.51%