Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Lens win with a probability of 63.01%. A draw had a probability of 20.6% and a win for Auxerre had a probability of 16.37%.
The most likely scoreline for a Lens win was 2-0 with a probability of 10.68%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (10.5%) and 2-1 (9.93%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (9.76%), while for an Auxerre win it was 0-1 (4.79%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 10.5% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Lens would win this match.
Result | ||
Lens | Draw | Auxerre |
63.01% ( 0.2) | 20.62% ( -0.09) | 16.37% ( -0.11) |
Both teams to score 52.6% ( 0.08) |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
56.87% ( 0.22) | 43.13% ( -0.22) |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
34.47% ( 0.21) | 65.53% ( -0.21) |
Lens Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
86.94% ( 0.13) | 13.07% ( -0.13) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
60.35% ( 0.26) | 39.66% ( -0.26) |
Auxerre Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
60.5% ( 0) | 39.5% ( 0) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
23.81% ( 0) | 76.19% ( 0) |
Score Analysis |
Lens | Draw | Auxerre |
2-0 @ 10.68% 1-0 @ 10.5% ( -0.05) 2-1 @ 9.93% ( -0) 3-0 @ 7.25% ( 0.03) 3-1 @ 6.74% ( 0.03) 4-0 @ 3.69% ( 0.03) 4-1 @ 3.43% ( 0.03) 3-2 @ 3.13% ( 0.01) 4-2 @ 1.59% ( 0.02) 5-0 @ 1.5% ( 0.02) 5-1 @ 1.4% ( 0.02) Other @ 3.18% Total : 63% | 1-1 @ 9.76% ( -0.05) 0-0 @ 5.16% ( -0.05) 2-2 @ 4.61% ( -0) 3-3 @ 0.97% ( 0.01) Other @ 0.12% Total : 20.62% | 0-1 @ 4.79% ( -0.05) 1-2 @ 4.53% ( -0.02) 0-2 @ 2.23% ( -0.02) 2-3 @ 1.43% 1-3 @ 1.4% ( -0.01) Other @ 1.99% Total : 16.37% |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
C | Paris Saint-GermainPSG | 34 | 22 | 10 | 2 | 81 | 33 | 48 | 76 |
2 | MonacoMonaco | 34 | 20 | 7 | 7 | 68 | 42 | 26 | 67 |
3 | Brest | 34 | 17 | 10 | 7 | 53 | 34 | 19 | 61 |
4 | Lille | 34 | 16 | 11 | 7 | 52 | 34 | 18 | 59 |
5 | Nice | 34 | 15 | 10 | 9 | 40 | 29 | 11 | 55 |
6 | Lyon | 34 | 16 | 5 | 13 | 49 | 55 | -6 | 53 |
7 | Lens | 34 | 14 | 9 | 11 | 45 | 37 | 8 | 51 |
8 | Marseille | 34 | 13 | 11 | 10 | 52 | 41 | 11 | 50 |
9 | Reims | 34 | 13 | 8 | 13 | 42 | 47 | -5 | 47 |
10 | Rennes | 34 | 12 | 10 | 12 | 53 | 46 | 7 | 46 |
11 | Toulouse | 34 | 11 | 10 | 13 | 42 | 46 | -4 | 43 |
12 | Montpellier HSCMontpellier | 34 | 10 | 12 | 12 | 43 | 48 | -5 | 41 |
13 | StrasbourgStrasbourg | 34 | 10 | 9 | 15 | 38 | 50 | -12 | 39 |
14 | NantesNantes | 34 | 9 | 6 | 19 | 30 | 55 | -25 | 33 |
15 | Le HavreLe Havre | 34 | 7 | 11 | 16 | 34 | 45 | -11 | 32 |
16 | Metz | 34 | 8 | 5 | 21 | 35 | 58 | -23 | 29 |
R | Lorient | 34 | 7 | 8 | 19 | 43 | 66 | -23 | 29 |
R | Clermont | 34 | 5 | 10 | 19 | 26 | 60 | -34 | 25 |
> Ligue 1 Full Table |