Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a CF Montreal win with a probability of 43.3%. A win for DC United had a probability of 31.56% and a draw had a probability of 25.1%.
The most likely scoreline for a CF Montreal win was 1-0 with a probability of 9.42%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.03%) and 2-0 (7.16%). The likeliest DC United win was 0-1 (7.82%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.88%). The actual scoreline of 4-2 was predicted with a 1.1% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that CF Montreal would win this match.
Result | ||
CF Montreal | Draw | DC United |
43.3% ( 0.31) | 25.14% ( 0.01) | 31.56% ( -0.32) |
Both teams to score 55.97% ( -0.17) |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
52.58% ( -0.16) | 47.42% ( 0.16) |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
30.37% ( -0.15) | 69.63% ( 0.15) |
CF Montreal Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
78.11% ( 0.07) | 21.88% ( -0.07) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
44.86% ( 0.11) | 55.13% ( -0.11) |
DC United Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
71.66% ( -0.28) | 28.34% ( 0.29) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
35.92% ( -0.36) | 64.08% ( 0.36) |
Score Analysis |
CF Montreal | Draw | DC United |
1-0 @ 9.42% ( 0.08) 2-1 @ 9.03% ( 0.03) 2-0 @ 7.16% ( 0.08) 3-1 @ 4.57% ( 0.03) 3-0 @ 3.63% ( 0.05) 3-2 @ 2.88% ( -0.01) 4-1 @ 1.74% ( 0.01) 4-0 @ 1.38% ( 0.02) 4-2 @ 1.1% Other @ 2.4% Total : 43.3% | 1-1 @ 11.88% ( 0.01) 0-0 @ 6.2% ( 0.04) 2-2 @ 5.69% ( -0.03) 3-3 @ 1.21% ( -0.01) Other @ 0.16% Total : 25.14% | 0-1 @ 7.82% ( -0.01) 1-2 @ 7.49% ( -0.05) 0-2 @ 4.93% ( -0.05) 1-3 @ 3.15% ( -0.05) 2-3 @ 2.39% ( -0.03) 0-3 @ 2.07% ( -0.04) 1-4 @ 0.99% ( -0.02) Other @ 2.72% Total : 31.56% |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
1 | Inter MiamiInter Miami | 17 | 10 | 4 | 3 | 39 | 24 | 15 | 34 |
2 | FC CincinnatiCincinnati | 16 | 10 | 3 | 3 | 23 | 16 | 7 | 33 |
3 | New York City FCNY City | 16 | 9 | 2 | 5 | 24 | 17 | 7 | 29 |
4 | New York Red BullsNY Red Bulls | 15 | 7 | 5 | 3 | 28 | 22 | 6 | 26 |
5 | Columbus Crew | 14 | 6 | 6 | 2 | 21 | 13 | 8 | 24 |
6 | Toronto | 16 | 7 | 2 | 7 | 24 | 24 | 0 | 23 |
7 | Charlotte FCCharlotte FC | 16 | 6 | 4 | 6 | 15 | 16 | -1 | 22 |
8 | Philadelphia UnionPhiladelphia | 15 | 4 | 7 | 4 | 25 | 21 | 4 | 19 |
9 | Nashville SCNashville | 15 | 4 | 7 | 4 | 19 | 20 | -1 | 19 |
10 | DC United | 16 | 4 | 6 | 6 | 23 | 29 | -6 | 18 |
11 | Orlando City | 15 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 16 | 23 | -7 | 17 |
12 | Atlanta UnitedAtlanta | 15 | 4 | 4 | 7 | 20 | 18 | 2 | 16 |
13 | CF MontrealMontreal | 15 | 4 | 4 | 7 | 21 | 33 | -12 | 16 |
14 | Chicago Fire | 16 | 2 | 6 | 8 | 15 | 28 | -13 | 12 |
15 | New England RevolutionNew England | 13 | 2 | 1 | 10 | 9 | 26 | -17 | 7 |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
1 | Real Salt LakeSalt Lake | 16 | 8 | 6 | 2 | 31 | 18 | 13 | 30 |
2 | Los Angeles GalaxyLA Galaxy | 16 | 7 | 7 | 2 | 30 | 23 | 7 | 28 |
3 | Los Angeles FCLos Angeles | 15 | 8 | 3 | 4 | 27 | 19 | 8 | 27 |
4 | Minnesota UnitedMinnesota Utd | 14 | 7 | 4 | 3 | 24 | 19 | 5 | 25 |
5 | Austin FCAustin | 16 | 6 | 5 | 5 | 20 | 20 | 0 | 23 |
6 | Vancouver WhitecapsVancouver | 15 | 6 | 4 | 5 | 22 | 18 | 4 | 22 |
7 | Colorado RapidsColorado | 16 | 6 | 4 | 6 | 28 | 29 | -1 | 22 |
8 | Houston DynamoHouston | 15 | 6 | 3 | 6 | 16 | 16 | 0 | 21 |
9 | Portland TimbersPortland | 16 | 5 | 4 | 7 | 30 | 30 | 0 | 19 |
10 | Seattle SoundersSeattle | 16 | 4 | 6 | 6 | 19 | 19 | 0 | 18 |
11 | St Louis City | 14 | 3 | 7 | 4 | 20 | 22 | -2 | 16 |
12 | Dallas | 14 | 3 | 4 | 7 | 17 | 23 | -6 | 13 |
13 | Sporting Kansas CityKansas | 15 | 2 | 5 | 8 | 23 | 28 | -5 | 11 |
14 | San Jose EarthquakesEarthquakes | 16 | 3 | 2 | 11 | 24 | 39 | -15 | 11 |