Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Melbourne Victory win with a probability of 50.19%. A win for Wellington Phoenix had a probability of 27.59% and a draw had a probability of 22.2%.
The most likely scoreline for a Melbourne Victory win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.39%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (7.13%) and 2-0 (6.83%). The likeliest Wellington Phoenix win was 1-2 (6.74%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (9.81%). The actual scoreline of 0-0 was predicted with a 3.7% likelihood.
Result | ||
Melbourne Victory | Draw | Wellington Phoenix |
50.19% ( 0.11) | 22.22% ( -0.02) | 27.59% ( -0.1) |
Both teams to score 63.71% ( -0.04) |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
63.87% ( -0.02) | 36.13% ( 0.01) |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
41.76% ( -0.02) | 58.24% ( 0.01) |
Melbourne Victory Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
85.28% ( 0.03) | 14.72% ( -0.03) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
57.08% ( 0.06) | 42.92% ( -0.06) |
Wellington Phoenix Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
74.7% ( -0.08) | 25.3% ( 0.07) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
39.93% ( -0.1) | 60.06% ( 0.1) |
Score Analysis |
Melbourne Victory | Draw | Wellington Phoenix |
2-1 @ 9.39% ( 0.01) 1-0 @ 7.13% ( 0.01) 2-0 @ 6.83% ( 0.02) 3-1 @ 6% ( 0.01) 3-0 @ 4.37% ( 0.02) 3-2 @ 4.12% 4-1 @ 2.87% ( 0.01) 4-0 @ 2.09% ( 0.01) 4-2 @ 1.98% ( 0) 5-1 @ 1.1% ( 0) 4-3 @ 0.91% ( -0) Other @ 3.39% Total : 50.19% | 1-1 @ 9.81% ( -0) 2-2 @ 6.46% ( -0.01) 0-0 @ 3.72% ( 0) 3-3 @ 1.89% ( -0) Other @ 0.35% Total : 22.22% | 1-2 @ 6.74% ( -0.02) 0-1 @ 5.12% ( -0.01) 0-2 @ 3.52% ( -0.01) 1-3 @ 3.09% ( -0.01) 2-3 @ 2.96% ( -0.01) 0-3 @ 1.61% ( -0.01) 1-4 @ 1.06% ( -0.01) 2-4 @ 1.02% ( -0.01) Other @ 2.48% Total : 27.59% |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
1 | Central Coast MarinersCentral Coast | 27 | 17 | 4 | 6 | 49 | 27 | 22 | 55 |
2 | Wellington PhoenixWellington | 27 | 15 | 8 | 4 | 42 | 26 | 16 | 53 |
3 | Melbourne VictoryVictory | 27 | 10 | 12 | 5 | 43 | 33 | 10 | 42 |
4 | Sydney FCSydney FC | 27 | 12 | 5 | 10 | 52 | 41 | 11 | 41 |
5 | Macarthur | 27 | 11 | 8 | 8 | 45 | 48 | -3 | 41 |
6 | Melbourne CityMelbourne City | 27 | 11 | 6 | 10 | 50 | 38 | 12 | 39 |
7 | Western Sydney WanderersWestern Sydney | 27 | 11 | 4 | 12 | 44 | 48 | -4 | 37 |
8 | Adelaide UnitedAdelaide United | 27 | 9 | 5 | 13 | 52 | 53 | -1 | 32 |
9 | Brisbane RoarBrisbane Roar | 27 | 8 | 6 | 13 | 42 | 55 | -13 | 30 |
10 | Newcastle JetsNewcastle Jets | 27 | 6 | 10 | 11 | 39 | 47 | -8 | 28 |
11 | Western UnitedWestern Utd | 27 | 7 | 5 | 15 | 36 | 55 | -19 | 26 |
12 | Perth GloryPerth Glory | 27 | 5 | 7 | 15 | 46 | 69 | -23 | 22 |
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