Bundesliga

Bundesliga | Gameweek 8

Oct 1, 2022 at 2.30pm UK

Mage-Solar-Stadion

Freiburg
2 - 1
Mainz 05

Gregoritsch (3'), Kyereh (37')
Hofler (70'), Keitel (90+4')

FT(HT: 2-0)

Caricol (52')
Bell (33'), Barreiro (53'), Stach (60'), Kohr (90')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Saturday's Bundesliga clash between Freiburg and Mainz 05, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Freiburg

All competitions

Bundesliga

Last Game: Hoffenheim 0-0 Freiburg
Sunday, September 18 at 6.30pm in Bundesliga

Goals
for

Top scorers

Mainz 05

All competitions

Last Game: Mainz 05 1-1 Hertha Berlin
Friday, September 16 at 7.30pm in Bundesliga

Goals
for

Top scorers

We said: Freiburg 2-1 Mainz 05

Just three points separate the two sides, but recent form and home advantage might just be the decisive factor here. Freiburg come into the game on the back of three clean sheets in all competitions, whereas Mainz's recent form has been slightly more questionable. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Freiburg win with a probability of 47.11%. A win for Mainz 05 had a probability of 28.68% and a draw had a probability of 24.2%.

The most likely scoreline for a Freiburg win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.39%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (9.14%) and 2-0 (7.57%). The likeliest Mainz 05 win was 1-2 (7.04%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.34%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 9.4% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted a 2-1 win for Freiburg in this match.

Result
Freiburg	Draw	Mainz 05
47.11% ( -0.56)	24.2% ( -0.11)	28.68% ( 0.67)

Both teams to score 57.52% (

0.88)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

55.34% (

0.93)

44.66% (

-0.93)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

32.98% (

0.89)

67.02% (

-0.89)

Freiburg Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

80.91% (

0.14)

19.08% (

-0.14)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

49.31% (

0.23)

50.69% (

-0.23)

Mainz 05 Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

71.09% (

0.96)

28.91% (

-0.96)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

35.21% (

1.18)

64.79% (

-1.18)

Score Analysis

Freiburg 47.11%

Mainz 05 28.68%

Draw 24.2%

Freiburg	Draw	Mainz 05
2-1 @ 9.39% ( -0.04) 1-0 @ 9.14% ( -0.33) 2-0 @ 7.57% ( -0.24) 3-1 @ 5.19% 3-0 @ 4.18% ( -0.11) 3-2 @ 3.22% ( 0.09) 4-1 @ 2.15% ( 0.01) 4-0 @ 1.73% ( -0.04) 4-2 @ 1.33% ( 0.04) Other @ 3.22% Total : 47.11%	1-1 @ 11.34% ( -0.1) 2-2 @ 5.83% ( 0.13) 0-0 @ 5.52% ( -0.23) 3-3 @ 1.33% ( 0.07) Other @ 0.19% Total : 24.2%	1-2 @ 7.04% ( 0.12) 0-1 @ 6.85% ( -0.09) 0-2 @ 4.25% ( 0.06) 1-3 @ 2.91% ( 0.13) 2-3 @ 2.41% ( 0.12) 0-3 @ 1.76% ( 0.07) 1-4 @ 0.9% ( 0.06) Other @ 2.57% Total : 28.68%